Samsung Electronics is on track to report that its operating profit soared roughly 18 times higher than it was a year ago during the second quarter, as the explosive growth of artificial intelligence continues to squeeze memory chip supplies and send prices upward.
According to an LSEG SmartEstimate drawing on projections from 30 analysts — weighted toward those with the strongest track records — the world’s top memory chipmaker by sales is expected to report an operating profit of approximately 86 trillion won, equivalent to about $56.35 billion, for the April through June period. That would be up sharply from 4.7 trillion won during the same quarter a year ago.
If confirmed, this would represent the third quarter in a row that Samsung has set a new operating profit record, a streak analysts attribute to a prolonged shortage of memory chips. The boom has been fueled by relentless demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure that continues to outpace what global memory manufacturers can produce.
Analysts believe the memory market will remain undersupplied at least through next year.
The surge in profits isn’t limited to high-bandwidth memory chips. Demand has also climbed for conventional DRAM and NAND products as AI applications — especially so-called agentic AI — spread into a wider range of computing tasks. Unlike earlier AI systems that focused primarily on training large models, agentic AI handles more complex, multi-step operations that require more memory for server processors and greater storage capacity to hold and retrieve information during use, analysts explained.
Samsung supplies memory chips to major technology companies including Nvidia, Google, and Apple.
Citi Research reported that average selling prices for DRAM and NAND climbed 44% and 53%, respectively, compared to the previous quarter during the second quarter. The ongoing shortage has also sparked a dramatic rally in memory chipmakers’ stock prices. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron have seen their shares rise 158%, 273%, and 242%, respectively, this year — pushing all three companies’ market valuations above $1 trillion.
Despite the strong financial picture, analysts warned that second-quarter results could miss expectations if Samsung sets aside more money than anticipated for employee bonuses. In late May, Samsung reached a wage agreement that averted a major strike. The deal sets aside 10.5% of the semiconductor division’s operating profit for special bonuses for chip workers. Some analysts estimate that Samsung’s total bonus provisions could top 40 trillion won, making the timing of when that money is recorded a critical factor in the quarter’s final results.
Samsung is expected to release detailed earnings figures later this month.
Looking further ahead, analysts identify a potential slowdown in AI infrastructure investment as the biggest threat to the current memory boom. JPMorgan noted in a recent report that while investors generally agree memory supply and demand remain tight, many are questioning whether the rapidly growing share of cloud service providers’ spending devoted to AI memory — estimated at 52% this year and projected to exceed 70% next year — can be sustained over time.
A pullback in AI spending could create serious problems for Samsung and SK Hynix, which recently committed to investing 3,200 trillion won, or about $2.07 trillion, to expand chip production capacity in South Korea. Samsung plans to make that investment between 2026 and 2040, while SK Hynix did not specify a timeline.
Investors are looking for clearer signs that advances in AI services will translate into faster growth in cloud computing revenues, which would help justify memory’s growing slice of AI infrastructure budgets, according to JPMorgan.
Samsung disclosed in April that it has signed multi-year binding contracts with customers seeking to lock in chip supplies, though it did not reveal the names of those customers or the terms of the agreements.
Nomura projected in a recent report that commodity DRAM prices will rise 24% quarter-over-quarter and NAND prices will increase 25% in the July through September period, supported by stronger demand for consumer memory products and chips used in both traditional and AI data centers.
On the consumer side, Samsung’s mobile division is feeling the squeeze from rising memory prices, which have increased component costs faster than recent smartphone price hikes can offset. Analysts said Samsung may need to raise handset prices again in the second half of the year. Rival Apple raised the prices of its iPads and MacBooks last month.
