MOSCOW, June 3 (Reuters) — Russian leader Vladimir Putin has delivered a stark ultimatum to longtime partner Armenia: continue pursuing European Union membership and lose access to discounted Russian energy supplies.
Putin delivered this warning ahead of Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Armenia, where polling indicates the party of Western-oriented Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is expected to secure victory.
This threat carries real weight. The landlocked nation of 3 million people maintains deep historical connections with Russia spanning centuries and relies heavily on Moscow economically. Russia has already implemented temporary restrictions on key Armenian exports leading up to the election.
However, Putin’s ultimatum also reveals Moscow’s growing challenges. As Russia continues its prolonged conflict in Ukraine after more than four years of warfare, the country is engaged in an escalating global effort to preserve its international influence.
With Moscow’s attention concentrated on Ukraine, both the European Union and United States have been actively pursuing traditional Russian partners and challenging Moscow’s interests across multiple regions.
Russian influence faces challenges from Cuba and Venezuela to Serbia and Central Asian nations, and even extends to west Africa where Moscow’s military assists in fighting Islamic militants.
Armenia has historically benefited from Russian financial support and hosts a Russian military installation. Last month, the country signed a partnership deal with the United States, and Pashinyan received strong backing from President Donald Trump.
The former Soviet republic also enacted legislation last year establishing a framework for potential EU membership.
“Of course we are deeply concerned about the Armenian authorities’ policy of rapprochement with the Euro-Atlantic community whose core policy is directed against Moscow,” Maria Zakharova, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, told reporters.
“The Anglo-Saxons are openly boasting about ‘detaching’ Armenia, as they say, from the bear hug of ‘authoritarian Russia’.”
Russian military commentators and experts describe a coordinated Western campaign to diminish Russian presence throughout the South Caucasus region, which includes Armenia.
“In such conditions, the question of adapting Russian strategy (to embrace soft power and economic levers) becomes key,” said Russian analytical Telegram channel “The Secret Chancery”, which has over 400,000 followers.
A government source indicated Moscow recognizes that nations like Armenia are “all waiting to see how the war (in Ukraine) ends” while some are establishing alternative relationships as Moscow remains focused elsewhere.
Armenia’s decision to host European leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, last month proved to be Moscow’s breaking point.
Subsequently, Russia imposed temporary import restrictions on numerous Armenian products, threatened to eliminate subsidized oil, gas and diamond exports, suggested Armenia’s potential removal from the Eurasian Economic Union trade organization, and withdrew its ambassador for discussions.
Dmitry Medvedev, the outspoken deputy chairman of Russia’s powerful Security Council, also hinted that Armenia’s prime minister could, if not careful, suffer the fate of Bolshevik revolutionary Leon Trotsky whom Josef Stalin had killed with an ice pick.
Meanwhile, Trump, whom Moscow anticipated would pressure Ukraine toward peace negotiations, has instead focused on three traditionally Russia-friendly nations — Iran, Venezuela and Cuba.
While Trump’s policies have increased oil prices, providing some economic relief for war-strained Russia, they have also highlighted Moscow’s limited ability to assist longtime allies. Cuba has received just one Russian oil delivery thus far.
Across Europe, Moscow faces what it describes as an increasingly antagonistic continent that is rearming while offering EU membership prospects to countries previously under Russian influence.
Putin ally Viktor Orban lost power in Hungary in April, leading to the unlocking of billions of euros in EU funding for Budapest. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, another Russian ally, is under pressure, with moves under way to abolish visa-free entry for Russians as Belgrade seeks EU membership.
Moscow also confronts pressure in Transdniestria, a Russian-controlled separatist territory internationally recognized as part of Moldova, whose leadership seeks EU membership.
Russia expresses concern about expanding Western influence in Central Asia, while in the South Caucasus Putin attempts to repair strained relations with oil-rich Azerbaijan, which has developed stronger Western connections recently.
