Moscow has issued a stark warning about Afghanistan’s security situation, claiming the country serves as a base for up to 23,000 international terrorist operatives who pose significant threats to regional stability.
According to Russia’s Foreign Ministry assessment, reported by the South Asia Terrorism Portal and Russian news agency Interfax, Afghanistan’s military and political landscape remains volatile and unpredictable, with terrorist networks serving as the primary source of instability.
The ministry’s analysis indicates that foreign nationals comprise more than half of the estimated 20,000 to 23,000 militants operating within Afghan borders, highlighting ongoing dangers to neighboring nations’ security.
Moscow’s breakdown identifies several major militant organizations: Islamic State-Khorasan Province commands approximately 3,000 fighters, while Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan maintains between 5,000 and 7,000 members. Al-Qaida’s presence ranges from 400 to 1,500 operatives, and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement operates with 300 to 1,200 fighters. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan fields 150 to 500 militants, with Jamaat Ansarullah maintaining 150 to 250 members.
Russian officials note that the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan primarily operates from Afghanistan’s southeastern and eastern territories, using these areas as launching points for cross-border attacks into Pakistan, further deteriorating relations between the two nations.
The assessment highlights Islamic State-Khorasan Province’s extensive infrastructure, including training compounds and dormant cells throughout various regions. Although not considered an immediate threat to Taliban authority, the group’s activities reportedly undermine perceptions of the Taliban’s capacity to maintain national security.
Despite Taliban efforts to reduce poppy farming, Afghanistan continues as a major narcotics producer. While opium cultivation allegedly decreased by roughly 20% in 2025, methamphetamine manufacturing has increased dramatically.
Notably, Russia stands as the only nation to formally recognize Taliban governance.
Prior to the Foreign Ministry’s concerning assessment, Andrey Serdyukov, Joint Staff chief of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), stated on February 13, 2026, that multiple international extremist and terrorist organizations continue operating within Afghanistan.
Serdyukov cautioned that these groups’ activities threaten broader regional stability, especially for Central Asian nations sharing borders with Afghanistan.
His statements reflected increasing anxiety within the Russia-led security alliance that Afghanistan-based armed networks could destabilize surrounding countries and increase cross-border insecurity.
During a Moscow press briefing, Serdyukov emphasized that extremist and terrorist groups’ continued presence and operations in Afghanistan directly threaten regional security and risk spreading instability to adjacent nations.
Meanwhile, Sergei Shoigu, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, pinpointed the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border as a critical security concern for CSTO member nations, reflecting worries that cross-border militant activity could destabilize the broader region.
The Moscow-based CSTO represents a Russia-led military partnership including Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, dedicated to addressing regional security challenges in Central Asia, including potential spillover from Afghanistan.
Taliban leadership has rejected Russia’s Foreign Ministry assertions regarding 20,000 to 23,000 international armed group members operating in Afghanistan.
Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid characterized the figures and their sources as inaccurate, maintaining that no such organizations exist within the country.
Mujahid, reinforcing the regime’s established stance, declared that Afghanistan operates under complete unified control and foreign groups cannot function within the nation.
Since the Taliban’s 2021 return to power, Islamabad has argued that terrorist incidents within Pakistan have increased substantially, primarily due to banned TTP leadership’s presence on Afghan territory.
Pakistan claims it has repeatedly presented Afghan Taliban leadership with solid evidence that Afghan soil is being utilized to conduct attacks inside Pakistan.
However, according to Islamabad, Kabul has not addressed these concerns seriously. Pakistani officials contend that this position has contributed to escalating tensions that have brought the two countries to near-confrontational status.
Recent assessments by credible Russian institutions appear to validate Islamabad’s position.
Some analysts suggest that Moscow may now reconsider its policy toward the Afghan regime.
Previously, UN entities such as the Security Council and its monitoring systems, along with US institutions including the State Department, US Central Command, and United States Institute of Peace, had repeatedly cautioned about this emerging threat, but Russia did not prioritize those evaluations. This time, however, following assessments issued by its own institutions, Moscow may seriously reconsider its approach.
Dr. Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based scholar and geopolitical analyst, explained to The Media Line that “Russia became the first country to officially recognize the Taliban’s restored rule over Afghanistan in order to develop more meaningful mineral, connectivity, and security cooperation.”
He clarified that “minerals” references Afghanistan’s rare earth resources, while “connectivity” indicates Russian plans to establish Afghanistan as a transit state connecting Russia with South Asia through Central Asia and Afghanistan.
“Understandably, none of these ambitious plans could come to fruition unless the security situation improves, namely through the elimination of foreign terrorists and the de-radicalization and reintegration of domestic ones—if they’re not eliminated in battle first,” Korybko stated.
He contended that the “Russian Foreign Ministry’s latest report was not meant to discredit the Taliban. Its purpose was to highlight the challenges the Taliban faces in controlling such groups.”
Simultaneously, Korybko observed that reports indicated the Taliban might support the TTP and could maintain connections to the Balochistan Liberation Army, noting that both are terrorist organizations that have executed attacks against neighboring Pakistan.
He stressed that “this report does indeed lend credence to Pakistan’s claims even if that wasn’t the intent, and the recent Pakistan-Taliban clashes come just before Prime Minister Sharif’s visit to Russia, meaning his talks with Putin will likely touch on these security issues.”
Syed Khalid Muhammad, executive director of CommandEleven, a Pakistan-based intelligence, consulting, and research organization providing geopolitical and threat analysis and risk assessments, informed The Media Line that “There is a clear shift in relations between Russia and the Afghan Taliban, of which the first indications began to emerge soon after the Taliban was recognized by Moscow. It started with soft public statements, coupled with harsher behind-the-scenes conversations with the Taliban leadership.”
He maintained that “not only Russia but also China, another key ally of Kabul, is reconsidering its approach amid the worsening security situation,” and mentioned that ISIS was connected to the Moscow concert hall attack and the assault on a Chinese restaurant in Kabul, while Beijing also cautioned Kabul following attacks on Chinese workers at mining locations.
According to Muhammad, these incidents, combined with a UN Security Council monitoring report indicating that the Taliban were harboring more than 21 terrorist groups, proved decisive and prompted both countries to reconsider their overall strategies.
He additionally argued that Islamic State group branches maintain connections and training facilities throughout Afghanistan, from the north to the southeast.
Muhammad added that despite previous endorsements of the Taliban’s counter-terrorism efforts, Russia now questions their effectiveness against IS-KP.
Mohsin Durrani, an Islamabad-based expert on regional security affairs, informed The Media Line that “The recent assessment by the Russian Foreign Ministry highlights persistent threats despite Russia’s recognition of the Taliban regime in July 2025.”
He stated that Moscow’s findings corresponded with Pakistan’s longstanding assertions that Afghan territory served as a sanctuary for armed groups, adding that recognizing this shared threat could encourage regional actors to prioritize coordinated security efforts.
Durrani observed that the assessment emphasizes continuing regional security challenges and reflects a more pragmatic, less idealistic relationship between Moscow and Kabul, one characterized by engagement but moderated by concerns over security deficiencies.
He further maintained that for Pakistan, the report provides external validation of its appeals for concrete action against cross-border terrorism, which could help build multilateral pressure to eliminate safe havens and influence broader regional stability strategies.
According to Durrani, a genuine recalibration of Russia’s policy toward conditional support may encourage stronger regional cooperation.
He argued that prioritizing counterterrorism over unconditional accommodation would help establish trust, reduce spillover risks, and support Pakistan’s efforts to achieve lasting peace through verified enforcement measures.
