MANILA, May 18 – The Philippine Senate was scheduled to assemble on Monday as an impeachment tribunal that may determine Vice President Sara Duterte’s political future, with an intense confrontation between competing political factions expected to dominate the proceedings.
The impeachment proceedings represent a crucial moment that could either destroy Duterte’s aspirations for the 2028 presidency or bolster her standing as the primary candidate to replace her political adversary, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who cannot seek reelection under constitutional restrictions.
The trial unfolds during a period of significant political upheaval, occurring just days following disorder and gunfire in the upper chamber and a potentially game-changing shift in Senate leadership, both connected to the return from concealment of a pro-Duterte senator sought by the International Criminal Court.
As legislators prepared to vote on Duterte’s impeachment in the lower chamber on May 11, politician Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa emerged from hiding to deliver a pivotal Senate vote installing Duterte supporter Alan Peter Cayetano as Senate president, making Cayetano the officer who will oversee the impeachment proceedings.
Duterte faces her most significant political challenge and could be prohibited from holding public office if found guilty in the trial, while her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, awaits his own ICC trial regarding his lethal “war on drugs” campaign.
Sara Duterte, 47, stands accused of improperly using government funds, accumulating unexplained assets and making death threats against Marcos, the first lady and a former House speaker. She maintains her innocence.
The trial’s start date remains uncertain. Marcos has kept his distance from her impeachment proceedings, describing it as a matter for the legislature to handle.
Both Marcos and Duterte come from influential political dynasties and campaigned as allies in the 2022 election. However, their partnership quickly deteriorated, resulting in a bitter split and Marcos turning her father over to the ICC.
Political experts suggest the Senate leadership transformation sparked by dela Rosa’s comeback may have altered the power dynamics in a chamber that includes Duterte supporters and allied politicians among its 24 members, who will act as jurors.
A guilty verdict requires support from two-thirds of the Senate.
“Given that we now have a new majority, thanks to the efforts of Senator Bato, it would make prosecuting Vice President Sara in the impeachment court a little more difficult,” said Ederson Tapia, public administration professor at the University of Makati.
Dela Rosa’s emergence after six months underground generated dramatic events that captivated the Philippines, with the former police commander sheltering for days in the heavily protected Senate before warnings of his pending arrest caused chaos, shooting and his departure hours afterward.
As the primary enforcer of the former president’s anti-drug campaign, dela Rosa, 64, faces accusations of crimes against humanity. The Marcos government confirmed Friday it will pursue his arrest.
Dela Rosa, whose location remains unknown, rejects the charges and has requested a Supreme Court order to prevent his detention, claiming no legal foundation exists to execute a warrant from an international tribunal. The solicitor-general disputes this argument.
