The OPEC+ alliance of oil-producing nations is expected to approve yet another increase in production targets when members meet online this Sunday, according to sources with knowledge of the discussions.
In principle, the group has agreed to raise output quotas by 188,000 barrels per day beginning in August. That increase would follow similar production boosts already put in place for June and July, two sources familiar with OPEC+ thinking confirmed ahead of the Sunday meeting.
Seven of the group’s core members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman — have collectively raised their output quotas by nearly 800,000 barrels per day between April and July.
However, much of that increase existed only on paper. The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, cutting off exports from some of OPEC+’s most significant members, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq.
As a result, OPEC+ total output dropped sharply — from 42.77 million barrels per day in February to just 33.13 million barrels per day in May, according to OPEC data. Production began to rebound in June, aided by U.S. efforts to help the UAE and other OPEC+ nations resume exports, though output remains below what it was before the conflict began.
Despite ongoing supply disruptions, oil prices have retreated to pre-war levels. Analysts point to weaker Chinese imports, increased output from producers outside the Middle East, and a record release of global strategic reserves coordinated by the International Energy Agency as key factors pushing prices lower. A memorandum of understanding to end the war has also helped reassure traders that supply will eventually return to normal.
Brent crude was trading near $72 per barrel on Friday — down sharply from a recent peak above $120 per barrel and back in line with prices seen just before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28.
Beyond setting production targets, OPEC+ is grappling with additional complications. The United Arab Emirates departed the group, and Iraq has signaled it is seeking higher production quotas for itself.
The UAE exited the alliance in late April, citing a desire to align its production more closely with its actual capacity without the output restrictions the group imposed. The seven remaining core producers are currently unwinding a 1.65 million barrel-per-day production cut that was originally agreed upon in 2023, when the UAE was still a member.
Starting in August, those seven nations have approximately 379,000 barrels per day of that original cut left to restore to the market, according to Reuters calculations. At the current pace of increases, the group could fully unwind the remaining cut by the end of September.
