NEW YORK (AP) — Questions swirl around President Donald Trump’s next moves: Will he deploy military forces to Iran? Could he rebrand the Strait of Hormuz with his own name? Might he post another message praising Allah?
While these answers remain unknown, digital gambling platforms allowing wagers on Trump’s policy decisions and public statements are seeing significant profits — including several companies with connections to his eldest son.
Online prediction markets thrive on the president’s erratic behavior and his tendency to keep observers uncertain about his upcoming actions or social media activity, driving increased betting activity and higher revenues for these platforms. This includes Polymarket, where Donald Trump Jr. holds an investment, and Kalshi, where he serves in an advisory capacity.
These platforms must constantly develop new betting opportunities based on current events, and Trump Jr.’s notoriously unpredictable father has become an abundant source of speculative questions.
When Polymarket offered odds on Trump potentially deploying troops to Iran, approximately 100,000 wagers were placed on April 8, creating the platform’s largest trading volume of the year at that point.
Trump’s policy positions and online statements fuel betting activity beyond military matters: Which candidate will Trump endorse for Venezuela’s leadership? Will his criticism of Pope Leo XIV persist? Could he attempt to acquire Greenland?
“Trump is the guy. He makes the market possible,” said Kwok Ping Tsang, a Virginia Tech economist who has studied Polymarket. “He’s so unpredictable.”
While sports gambling represents the largest segment of prediction market activity, political wagering ranks as a close runner-up, according to cryptocurrency analysis company Dune.
Bettors place “Yes” or “No” wagers on diverse topics — gold prices, “Survivor” winners, and weather patterns. Wager costs, expressed in cents per dollar, indicate betting consensus, with a 49-cent “Yes” price representing 49% probability.
This gambling activity has attracted criticism from both political parties for potentially enabling insider trading, yet the president appears supportive, implementing minimal regulatory oversight and facilitating industry growth. The Trump Organization is developing its own prediction platform called Truth Predict.
Trump’s Iran strategy has generated substantial betting fees recently, particularly following his April 5 Truth Social message demanding the country “Open the F—- Strait.”
Polymarket trading surged with invasion-related wagers, according to Dune, only to be exceeded on April 7 by ceasefire betting following Trump’s ominous post that a “whole civilization will die tonight.”
Between Sunday, April 5, and Wednesday, April 8 — the day after Trump announced a ceasefire — 413 million Iran war bets were placed, risking over $100 million, Dune reported.
Following this surge, Dune labeled Trump an “unpredictability machine” and noted how his “governing-by-tweet” approach drives trading volumes higher.
When questioned about the president’s son profiting from businesses that benefit from his father’s decisions, a Trump Jr. spokesperson dismissed the inquiry as “fact-free Democratic propaganda.”
“Don does not interface with the federal government as part of his role with any company that he invests in or advises and has no influence or involvement with administration policies relating to prediction markets,” said spokesman Andrew Surabian.
Polymarket declined to provide comment.
These betting platforms gained popularity following Trump’s November 2024 reelection victory, partly because they accurately forecasted his decisive win while many experts predicted otherwise.
Since taking office, the Trump administration has challenged states attempting to prohibit prediction markets through anti-gambling legislation. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s leadership has publicly endorsed the industry, with one official describing online betting as “exciting products” in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece.
Polymarket has particularly benefited from this environment. The platform faced a U.S. operating ban in 2022 after the Biden administration penalized it for running an unregistered exchange. Following recent approval to resume operations, its valuation has skyrocketed.
The company now carries a $9.6 billion valuation according to research firm PitchBook, representing nearly a ten-fold increase over eight months since a venture capital fund with Trump Jr. as a partner made its latest investment.
The extent of Trump Jr.’s financial gains from this valuation increase remains unclear due to Polymarket’s private status and undisclosed ownership details. Kalshi, which appointed Trump Jr. as an adviser last year, also maintains private ownership.
Beyond prediction markets, Trump Jr. has additional potential profit sources from conflict and warfare.
His venture capital fund holds investments in aerospace, defense, and technology firms pursuing Pentagon contracts and other federal funding. Additionally, he and brother Eric recently secured ownership stakes in a military drone manufacturer that sells to U.S. forces while also marketing to Gulf nations under Iranian threat who depend on their father for American military protection in a conflict he initiated.
When asked last month about the drone company potentially benefiting from his father’s presidential position, Eric Trump provided The Associated Press with a statement saying, “I am incredibly proud to invest in companies I believe in.”
Congressional critics, predominantly Democrats, have condemned what they view as blatant presidential profiteering and await midterm elections to take action, possibly pursuing impeachment.
Whether such action occurs remains uncertain — or more precisely, the subject of tens of thousands of individual predictions.
On Polymarket, bettors initially assessed Trump’s impeachment chances at 13% for the year’s beginning. However, these odds shifted dramatically following his “civilization wipe out” threat and Democratic calls for his removal.
By Tuesday, impeachment probability had risen to 66%.
