Ten years following the NBA’s inaugural draft lottery featuring Patrick Ewing as the top prize, the NHL introduced its own version with much less publicity.
Gary Bettman, the NHL commissioner who previously worked in basketball, helped develop the league’s method for establishing draft order. The system debuted in 1995, when just one franchise was selected as the lottery “winner.” The Los Angeles Kings moved from seventh position to third overall, as teams were restricted from jumping more than four positions at that time.
The remaining draft order remained unchanged, with Ottawa securing the first pick after recording the league’s poorest season record.
“It wasn’t really suspenseful,” said Randy Sexton, who served as the Senators’ general manager then. “We had a list of the random numbers and everybody tried to pretend that they really didn’t care, but as the numbers started to pop up, everybody started to try and figure out which number fell in their realm.”
The NHL’s lottery system has never matched the unpredictability of the NBA version. Throughout most of its history, only one franchise was chosen to advance, meaning no team could fall more than a single spot. Before 2013, teams were limited to moving up just four positions maximum.
An exception occurred in 2005 following a lockout that canceled the entire season. Every franchise had an opportunity to win the lottery and select Sidney Crosby that year.
Today’s format operates differently. Two separate drawings determine the first and second picks, with teams able to jump as many as 10 positions. The lottery ball selection is broadcast live. With this year’s drawing scheduled for Tuesday, The Associated Press examined each franchise’s lottery performance, categorizing teams into six groups:
Several franchises have gained substantial advantages from the lottery system:
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
First-Overall Selections: 2007 (Patrick Kane), 2023 (Connor Bedard)
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Beyond their two top picks, Chicago also advanced four positions to fourth in 1999 and jumped nine spots to third in 2019.
EDMONTON OILERS
First-Overall Selections: 2010 (Taylor Hall), 2011 (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins), 2012 (Neil Yakupov), 2015 (Connor McDavid)
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: No franchise has secured the top selection more frequently during the lottery period, achieving this feat four times within six years. Edmonton held the strongest odds twice and capitalized both times. The other occasions saw the Oilers move up, including when McDavid was available.
FLORIDA PANTHERS
First-Overall Selections: 2002 (traded selection — Rick Nash), 2003 (traded selection — Marc-Andre Fleury), 2014 (Aaron Ekblad)
Lost First-Overall Position: 2013 (Nathan MacKinnon)
Summary: Despite trading away consecutive top picks that allowed Columbus to select Nash and Pittsburgh to acquire Fleury, Florida benefited from three lottery-generated opportunities at the first position.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS
First-Overall Selections: 2017 (Nico Hischier), 2019 (Jack Hughes)
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: New Jersey has advanced four separate times, including for both top overall picks.
NEW YORK ISLANDERS
First-Overall Selections: 2000 (Rick DiPietro), 2009 (John Tavares), 2025 (Matthew Schaefer)
Lost First-Overall Position: 2001 (Ilya Kovalchuk)
Summary: The Islanders possessed only 3.5% odds for the first pick last season yet jumped from tenth position. Schaefer has already made an immediate impact.
NEW YORK RANGERS
First-Overall Selections: 2020 (Alexis Lafrenière)
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: New York surprisingly won the special 2020 lottery despite participating in that year’s COVID-delayed postseason play-in round. The previous season they moved from sixth to second.
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
First-Overall Selections: 1998 (Vincent Lecavalier), 1999 (traded selection — Patrik Stefan), 2008 (Steven Stamkos)
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Tampa Bay has never actually moved up in the lottery but received three top picks. During their frequent lottery appearances in the late 1990s and early 2000s, only five teams could receive the first selection. Having the best odds, as Tampa Bay did in 1998 and 1999, provided strong positioning.
Some franchises have received minimal assistance despite occasionally favorable odds:
ANAHEIM DUCKS
First-Overall Selections: None
Lost First-Overall Position: 2023 (Connor Bedard)
Summary: Anaheim has held top-three lottery odds three times since 2021, making their continued misfortune increasingly painful.
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
First-Overall Selections: None
Lost First-Overall Position: 2012 (Neil Yakupov)
Summary: While Columbus traded for the top pick in 2002 to select Rick Nash, it’s surprising they’ve never won the first selection through the lottery given their frequent decent chances.
DETROIT RED WINGS
First-Overall Selections: None
Lost First-Overall Position: 2020 (Alexis Lafrenière)
Summary: Detroit followed a 25-season playoff streak with a decade-long drought that now represents the NHL’s longest. The Red Wings dropped in the lottery every year from 2017-2020.
UTAH MAMMOTH (formerly PHOENIX/ARIZONA COYOTES and WINNIPEG JETS)
First-Overall Selections: None
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Utah jumped 10 positions to fourth last year, but the franchise has been poorly treated by the lottery overall. The original Jets, Coyotes, and Mammoth have had 13 different opportunities to win the top pick, more than any franchise that hasn’t received it.
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
First-Overall Selections: None
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Vancouver has never moved up in the lottery. They held the third-best odds in 2016 and second-best in 2017 but received the fifth pick both times.
Several teams have each won the lottery once but selected impactful players:
COLORADO AVALANCHE
First-Overall Selections: 2013 (Nathan MacKinnon)
Lost First-Overall Position: 2017 (Nico Hischier), 2019 (Jack Hughes)
Summary: MacKinnon has delivered both a Stanley Cup championship and MVP award since joining Colorado.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
First-Overall Selections: 2005 (Sidney Crosby)
Lost First-Overall Position: 2004 (Alex Ovechkin)
Summary: The 2005 Crosby lottery included every team, with Pittsburgh prevailing. The Penguins also picked first in 2003 with Marc-Andre Fleury, but the lottery had placed them third before they traded for the top selection.
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
First-Overall Selections: 2016 (Auston Matthews)
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: While Matthews hasn’t brought Toronto significant playoff success, his arrival helped the Maple Leafs escape lottery territory immediately. He averages nearly 43 goals per season. Toronto and St. Louis are the only franchises never to move up or down in the lottery.
WASHINGTON CAPITALS
First-Overall Selections: 2004 (Alex Ovechkin)
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Washington fell from playoff contention in 2003 to near the bottom in 2004, then landed Ovechkin. He quickly transformed their fortunes while becoming the NHL’s career goal-scoring leader and bringing the franchise its only Stanley Cup title.
Some teams have extensive lottery experience with mixed results:
BUFFALO SABRES
First-Overall Selections: 2018 (Rasmus Dahlin), 2021 (Owen Power)
Lost First-Overall Position: 2014 (Aaron Ekblad), 2015 (Connor McDavid)
Summary: After missing McDavid, Buffalo’s fortune eventually changed. Both Dahlin and Power are on this year’s Sabres team, which finally reached the postseason for the first time since 2011.
OTTAWA SENATORS
First-Overall Selections: 1995 (Bryan Berard), 1996 (Chris Phillips)
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Ottawa secured the first pick in the initial two lotteries, though they held the best odds both times. They’ve never actually moved up from their expected position.
SAN JOSE SHARKS
First-Overall Selections: 2024 (Macklin Celebrini)
Lost First-Overall Position: 2025 (Matthew Schaefer)
Summary: Without the Celebrini selection, San Jose would rank among the unluckier lottery teams, but he appears to be an excellent choice.
WINNIPEG JETS (formerly ATLANTA THRASHERS)
First-Overall Selections: 2001 (Ilya Kovalchuk)
Lost First-Overall Position: 2000 (Rick DiPietro), 2002 (Rick Nash)
Summary: Atlanta moved from third to first in 2001, but failed to capitalize when holding the best odds in 2000 and 2002. After relocating to Winnipeg, they moved from sixth to second in 2016.
Several franchises have minimal lottery history:
CALGARY FLAMES
First-Overall Selections: None
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Calgary’s only lottery movement was dropping from fifth to sixth in 2016.
DALLAS STARS
First-Overall Selections: None
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Dallas moved from eighth to third in 2017 to select defenseman Miro Heiskanen, their only significant lottery experience.
MINNESOTA WILD
First-Overall Selections: None
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Minnesota has been eligible for the top pick just four times, including 2000 before beginning play and 2005 when every team could select Crosby.
NASHVILLE PREDATORS
First-Overall Selections: None
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Like other teams in this category, Nashville is younger than the lottery system. After selecting second before their inaugural season, they’ve never picked higher than fourth.
SEATTLE KRAKEN
First-Overall Selections: None
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Seattle moved up one spot to second in 2021 to select Matty Beniers in their first lottery.
ST. LOUIS BLUES
First-Overall Selections: 2006 (Erik Johnson)
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: St. Louis has been eligible for the top pick just four times in the lottery era, the fewest of any long-standing team. They held the best odds in 2006 when receiving the top selection, though Johnson spent most of his career in Colorado.
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
First-Overall Selections: None
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Vegas dropped from third to sixth in 2017 before their inaugural season and hasn’t returned to the lottery since.
BOSTON BRUINS
First-Overall Selections: 1997 (Joe Thornton)
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Acquiring Thornton was significant for Boston, but they held the best odds that year, making it unsurprising.
CAROLINA HURRICANES
First-Overall Selections: None
Lost First-Overall Position: 2003 (Marc-Andre Fleury)
Summary: Carolina’s only lottery advancement was substantial, moving from 11th to second in 2018 to select Andrei Svechnikov.
LOS ANGELES KINGS
First-Overall Selections: None
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Los Angeles was chosen in the inaugural 1995 lottery, advancing from seventh to third. This represents one of only three instances where the top pick didn’t go to a lottery-selected team.
MONTREAL CANADIENS
First-Overall Selections: 2023 (Juraj Slafkovský)
Lost First-Overall Position: Never
Summary: Montreal may join the successful lottery teams in coming years. Slafkovský achieved his first 30-goal season this year.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
First-Overall Selections: None
Lost First-Overall Position: 2007 (Patrick Kane)
Summary: Philadelphia missed Kane, who later scored the goal that won Chicago the 2010 Stanley Cup Final against the Flyers.
