Oil tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly ground to a halt, according to shipping data and industry insiders, as the risk to vessels surged following renewed U.S. airstrikes on Iran and retaliatory strikes by Tehran targeting U.S. military infrastructure in nearby Gulf nations.
By early Thursday morning, only two tankers had made the crossing. One was the crude supertanker Berg 1, which had taken on cargo at Iran’s Kharg Island and is under U.S. sanctions, according to analysis from Kpler. The other was the Marshall Islands-flagged chemical tanker Well Sail, whose previous loading point was near Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates, based on ship tracking data from LSEG.
Adding to the uncertainty, sources within the shipping industry noted that a growing number of vessels are disabling their public AIS tracking transponders, making it increasingly difficult to get a full picture of which ships are actually moving through the waterway.
Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, put it bluntly in a written report: “Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially stopped, which tells you more about risk perception right now than any statement from Washington or Tehran.”
The current flare-up is the latest development in a conflict that began on February 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. The most recent round of tensions was sparked earlier this week when three tankers were attacked in the strait — incidents the U.S. attributed to Iran. Iranian forces then struck U.S. military sites in neighboring Gulf countries on Thursday in response to American strikes on Iran’s southern coastal and eastern regions, putting further strain on a truce that was only three weeks old.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy issued a warning Thursday, saying that U.S. actions — including strikes on Iran and interference with shipping routes — were disrupting the strait’s gradual reopening. The Guards warned that any additional U.S. intervention would be met with a “crushing response.”
Before the war began, the Strait of Hormuz was responsible for moving roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Over the past two weeks, daily traffic had climbed to its highest point since the conflict started, averaging around 40 ships per day — still far below the pre-war norm of 125 to 140 daily transits.
One of the three vessels attacked earlier this week, the Marshall Islands-flagged Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat, remains stranded off the coast of Oman awaiting salvage after a projectile hit late Tuesday ignited a fire in its engine room. While there were initial fears of a potential explosion, industry sources said that risk appears low for now and the ship’s liquefied natural gas cargo seems to be secure. The Marshall Islands ship registry confirmed to Reuters that no injuries or environmental damage had been reported in connection with the incident.
Some marine war insurance underwriters have advised shipping firms to hold off on sending vessels through the strait, while others are revisiting their coverage terms in light of the renewed attacks, according to insurance industry sources.
Ship broker Clarksons noted in a report that “the Hormuz reopening story looks more fragile after the latest escalation.”
One marine war underwriter, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter, warned: “As recent incidents have shown, the (marine war) market is now facing the prospect of potentially severe losses involving vessels of substantial value.”
