Oil prices slipped slightly Monday following a weekend decision by OPEC+ to push production targets even higher starting next month, while exports from major oil-producing nations through the Strait of Hormuz continue to recover — a combination that could add more supply to global markets.
Brent crude futures dropped 24 cents, or 0.33%, to $71.88 per barrel as of 0010 GMT on Monday, after closing 0.45% higher on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 11 cents, or 0.16%, to $68.58 a barrel. WTI had no official Friday closing price because U.S. markets were shut ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Saturday.
Both oil benchmarks finished last week with little movement overall. Prices had been mostly declining in recent weeks as investors closely watched ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran over tanker access through the Strait of Hormuz, while also monitoring the gradual return of Gulf oil shipments.
On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — including Russia — voted to add another 188,000 barrels per day to their output targets beginning in August. That decision comes on top of comparable increases that were already approved for June and July.
Despite the announced increases, actual production gains have been limited. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic, cutting off key OPEC members — including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq — from moving their oil, which kept real output in check.
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said the latest decision was largely expected. “The number was largely in line with expectation,” he said. “With UAE leaving and when quotas are probably still not being met due to production still ramping up after the conflict — I’m not sure they mean much at the moment.”
The United Arab Emirates formally withdrew from OPEC as of May 1.
Gulf producers have been working to restore supplies that were shut down during the Iran conflict, and exports are gradually climbing. A Reuters survey found that OPEC’s total oil output in June rose by 3.3 million barrels per day compared to May, reaching 19.43 million barrels per day — a recovery from the lowest production levels seen in more than two decades.
Gulf oil exports in June surged by more than 3 million barrels compared to May, topping 10 million barrels per day. However, that figure still sits roughly 40% below the levels seen before the war began.
Meanwhile, crude shipments out of Russia’s western ports hit a record high in June and are expected to hold at that level through July. Industry sources say Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian refineries have forced Moscow to redirect more crude oil to export rather than domestic processing.
