SAO PAULO – A new survey released Wednesday reveals that Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintains his frontrunner status for October’s presidential election, but his once-commanding advantage has vanished in a potential second-round matchup against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro.
The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey indicates that in initial voting scenarios, the leftist incumbent would capture between 43% and 47% of ballots across five different simulated matchups. His right-wing opponent, Senator Bolsonaro, would secure between 33% and 40% across four separate scenarios.
However, the most striking finding emerges in a hypothetical runoff situation, where both candidates are essentially deadlocked – Lula at 46.2% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 46.3%. This represents a dramatic shift from January’s polling, which showed Lula ahead 49.2% to 44.9%, and an even steeper decline from his 12-percentage-point lead recorded in December.
While Lula would prevail against six other potential challengers, the survey shows he would narrowly lose to Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas in a head-to-head contest.
Financial markets have been closely monitoring these polling trends since December, when imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son Flavio. This announcement triggered a decline in Brazil’s currency and stock markets, as investors had anticipated the elder Bolsonaro would support a more business-friendly candidate like Freitas.
The 80-year-old Lula, who successfully defeated Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, is pursuing what would be his fourth non-consecutive presidential term. Under Brazil’s electoral system, any race where no candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes automatically triggers a runoff between the top two finishers – a scenario that has occurred in every presidential election since 2002.
The polling data comes from AtlasIntel’s survey of 4,986 respondents conducted between February 19-24, with a margin of error of one percentage point in either direction.
