NEW YORK (AP) — For decades, backing Israel was something both major political parties could agree on. But a new poll from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that consensus is crumbling, with opposition rising sharply among Democrats and cracks appearing even within the Republican Party.
The survey comes as Israel’s conduct in its ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza — now approaching its third year — has turned what was once a broadly shared foreign policy position into a deeply divisive issue, splitting Americans along both party and generational lines.
Roughly one-third of American adults — including about half of all Democrats — now believe Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians during the Gaza conflict. That accusation has been made by certain human rights organizations but is firmly rejected by both Israel and the U.S. government. About 2 in 10 Americans say genocide has not occurred, while the remaining half say they don’t have enough information to form an opinion.
Among Jewish adults specifically, about 30% believe Israel has committed genocide, while nearly half — 49% — say it has not.
Harold Kalmus, a 69-year-old Democrat from Arden, Delaware, who identifies as Jewish by birth, said his feelings toward Israel have changed dramatically over the years. He remembers feeling pride in the country when he was young — but that’s no longer the case.
“I realize that there is a threat from Hamas. And I realize they’re in a very difficult situation, but what they have done is just an unspeakable horror,” he said, referring to Israel’s military campaign against Palestinians. “They’re trying to wipe out a civilization as far as I’m concerned.”
The poll reflects a steep decline in how Americans view Israel in the nearly three years since Hamas launched its attack on October 7, 2023 — an assault that killed approximately 1,200 people in Israel, mostly civilians, and resulted in 251 people being taken as hostages to Gaza. According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, more than 73,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza since then, a figure that does not separate civilian from militant casualties. That total includes more than 1,000 deaths since the most recent ceasefire began. Polling data suggests American sympathies had been gradually shifting toward Palestinians since around 2020, but that trend accelerated dramatically after the latest war began.
Around 4 in 10 Americans say they don’t feel informed enough to judge whether Israel’s military response — either its initial retaliation or its continued operations — was justified. Among those who did weigh in, most said the early military response was appropriate. However, a majority of that same group believes Israel’s current ongoing military actions are not justified.
Among Jewish adults, about three-quarters said Israel’s initial response was justified, but that support dropped to roughly 4 in 10 when asked about its continuing operations.
Only about one-third of Americans consider Israel to be an “extremely” or “very” important personal issue. Still, the U.S.-Israel relationship has become a flashpoint in American politics, with high-stakes midterm elections just four months away — elections that will determine which party controls Congress during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s time in office. Vice President JD Vance recently took aim at Israeli leaders who have voiced frustration with Trump, while candidates who have been vocal critics of Israel recently beat establishment-backed Democrats in primary races in New York and Colorado.
The poll shows a clear and decisive shift happening within the Democratic Party. About 58% of Democrats now say the U.S. is “too supportive” of Israel — up from 45% in a January 2024 AP-NORC poll conducted while former President Joe Biden was still in office. That includes 51% of Jewish Democrats in the current survey.
Around 62% of Democrats say the U.S. is “not supportive enough” of Palestinians, compared to 49% two years ago. While younger Democrats — those 45 and under — remain more likely than their older counterparts to hold that view, the gap is narrowing. About 57% of older Democrats now say the U.S. should do more to support Palestinians, up from just 39% two years ago.
Joy Jennik, a 73-year-old Democrat from Brookfield, Wisconsin, said she didn’t have particularly strong feelings about the U.S.-Israel relationship before Hamas’ October 7 attack. Now, she believes Israel is guilty of genocide.
“The Gaza Strip, there’s not a lot left of it. Those poor people are barely living,” said Jennik, a retired home economics teacher.
On the Republican side, only 13% describe Israel’s actions as genocide, though a generational divide is visible there too. About 2 in 10 Republicans under 45 use that term, compared to roughly 1 in 10 Republicans aged 45 and older.
Overall, 60% of Republicans say U.S. support for Israel is “about right,” and only about 2 in 10 say the country is “too supportive” — though younger Republicans are more likely to hold that view. While the share of Republicans saying the U.S. is “too supportive” hasn’t changed significantly since 2024, the share saying it’s “not supportive enough” has fallen from 39% to just 15%.
Mike Cardona, a 70-year-old Republican from suburban Phoenix, said he supports the current level of U.S. backing for Israel and rejects the genocide characterization.
“I wish they’d gone in harder and better,” said Cardona, a retired industrial supply salesperson, referring to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. “Unfortunately, some innocents will be hurt, but Hamas and Hezbollah never took that into consideration when they were killing children and women in Israel.”
Several people interviewed for the poll said their criticism was aimed specifically at Israel’s leadership — particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is widely seen as closely aligned with Trump following repeated conflicts with Democratic presidents.
Nationally, only 20% of American adults have a favorable view of the Israeli prime minister, while about twice that number — 38% — view him unfavorably. About 41% say they don’t know enough to form an opinion.
Netanyahu’s approval is especially low among Jewish adults: roughly 6 in 10 view him unfavorably, while about one-third see him in a positive light.
Younger Americans across both parties are more likely to say they don’t have an opinion about Netanyahu. Among older Republicans, views of Netanyahu lean positive, but younger Republicans’ opinions tilt in the opposite direction.
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist who has been an outspoken critic of Israel, is viewed favorably by 27% of U.S. adults. Another 28% view him unfavorably, and 44% say they don’t know enough to have an opinion.
Jewish adults — who identify as Democrats at high rates — actually view Mamdani more positively than Netanyahu, with 44% holding a favorable opinion of the New York City mayor, 39% viewing him negatively, and 17% saying they’re unsure.
About half of Democrats overall view Mamdani favorably, with only about 1 in 10 holding an unfavorable view and roughly 39% saying they don’t have an opinion.
Despite all of this, the U.S.-Israel issue is far from the top concern for many Americans heading into the midterm elections.
Michael Ripka, a 34-year-old stage hand from Casper, Wyoming who typically votes Republican, said the economy is what matters most to him right now.
“Everything is mad expensive,” he said, adding that Middle East conflicts are “100% a very big distraction.”
The AP-NORC poll surveyed 3,040 adults between June 11 and June 17, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to reflect the broader U.S. population. The poll also included interviews with 1,022 Jewish adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for the general adult sample, and plus or minus 5.0 percentage points for the Jewish adult sample.
