A wave of trading activity, fueled in part by the massive SpaceX initial public offering, is expected to deliver impressive second-quarter results for the biggest names on Wall Street, according to analysts and data from LSEG.
Five of the six largest U.S. banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs — are scheduled to release their quarterly earnings on July 14, with Morgan Stanley following a day later on July 15.
Trading has remained a reliable source of income throughout 2026, as ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty tied to artificial intelligence disruption have kept market volatility elevated.
Angad Chhatwal, head of fixed income, currencies, and commodities at Coalition Greenwich, a global analytics and data provider for the financial services industry, said market revenue for the world’s largest banks is expected to climb at least 15% compared to the same period last year.
Jamie Vickers, head of equities at Coalition Greenwich, pointed to stocks as the key growth driver. “Equities is set to be the primary engine of growth across global markets. The SpaceX IPO will have generated significant revenues in banking but also for certain cash-equities desks during the quarter,” Vickers said.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, both of which played major roles in the nearly $86 billion SpaceX IPO, are expected to lead the pack in equities performance, according to Morningstar analyst Sean Dunlop. Banks involved in the SpaceX deal reportedly collected around $500 million in fees combined.
Dunlop did offer a note of caution, however, saying that while second-quarter trading revenue remains solid, it may not match the exceptional pace of the first quarter. That earlier period was driven by unusually intense volatility stemming from the initial Iran war shock and related inflation and interest rate shifts.
Investment banking has also been a standout performer, with large-scale equity offerings and multibillion-dollar transactions pointing to the most active deal-making climate in years. Global investment banking revenue reached $61.4 billion in the first half of 2026, a 24% increase over the same stretch a year ago, according to Dealogic data. JPMorgan held the top spot globally for investment banking revenue, while Goldman Sachs led in merger and acquisition advisory work.
Among the quarter’s notable transactions were chip designer Cerebras’ $6.4 billion IPO and a massive $85 billion share sale by Alphabet, the parent company of Google.
LOAN GROWTH ADDS TO THE PICTURE
Banks are also expected to benefit from stronger loan activity and wider net interest margins — a measure of the difference between what banks earn on loans and what they pay out on deposits.
Federal Reserve data indicates that loan growth picked up speed in the second quarter, particularly in commercial and industrial lending, analysts noted.
Jefferies analyst David Chiaverini highlighted a shift in business sentiment: “While some uncertainty persists from geopolitical factors and market volatility, many banks are reporting that clients are increasingly viewing the current environment as the ‘new normal’ and continuing to move forward with investment plans.”
Investors are expected to closely watch executive commentary on the economic outlook for the remainder of 2026, especially as inflation continues to weigh on consumers. Morningstar analyst Austin Taggart noted that credit quality and overall loan demand will be critical factors in sustaining the recent rally in bank stocks through the second half of the year.
WHAT THE BANKS ARE SAYING
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told investors at a conference in May that the bank’s investment banking fees could grow by 10% or more in the second quarter.
Bank of America Co-President Jim DeMare said in June that the bank may surpass an earlier projection of 15% growth in second-quarter markets revenue, driven by its equities business.
Citigroup Chief Financial Officer Gonzalo Luchetti said at an investor conference in June that trading revenue is expected to rise in the high-single to low-double digit range for the quarter, with investment banking revenue projected to climb by a mid-teen percentage.
Wells Fargo CFO Mike Santomassimo said in June that the bank’s net interest income is expected to “step up” in the second quarter.
Goldman Sachs announced in a LinkedIn post on June 16 that it has advised on more than $1 trillion in announced mergers and acquisitions so far in 2026, citing Dealogic data — a record pace for any investment bank within a half-year period.
Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said last month that it was “a pretty good time to be in the capital markets business,” adding that there is a lot of core investment banking activity underway.
Below are second-quarter 2026 earnings-per-share estimates compared to the same quarter last year, based on LSEG data as of June 30:
JPMorgan Chase: estimated $5.70 vs. $5.24 in Q2 2025
Bank of America: estimated $1.11 vs. $0.89 in Q2 2025
Citigroup: estimated $2.68 vs. $1.96 in Q2 2025
Wells Fargo: estimated $1.71 vs. $1.60 in Q2 2025
Goldman Sachs: estimated $13.91 vs. $10.91 in Q2 2025
Morgan Stanley: estimated $2.84 vs. $2.13 in Q2 2025
