More than six weeks after launching military operations against Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself unable to convert battlefield successes into meaningful political victories at home.
While Israel has demonstrated superior military capabilities, the campaign has failed to neutralize key adversaries across multiple fronts. Iran continues to maintain its nuclear infrastructure and missile systems despite significant airstrikes conducted jointly with U.S. forces, and Tehran still controls the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of global oil supplies flow.
Hamas remains operational in Gaza without being completely dismantled, while Hezbollah forces backed by Iran continue launching rocket attacks on northern Israeli territories from Lebanon.
Danny Citrinowicz, who researches Iran at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, offered a stark assessment: “Netanyahu is not winning. This war is a strategic failure. There is a gap between what he promised at the start of the campaign and where we ended up.”
The 76-year-old prime minister is experiencing declining public support as the military operation, initially launched alongside U.S. President Donald Trump, fails to produce the definitive results that were promised. Political experts across the region note that Netanyahu’s approval numbers have fallen, creating increased risks as Israel approaches legislative elections scheduled for late October.
Netanyahu’s representatives did not provide responses to requests for comment. However, the prime minister has defended the military campaign’s accomplishments, arguing that critics are downplaying Israel’s successes against Iranian targets.
“There are massive achievements here. This is a historic change. We crushed the nuclear program. We crushed the missiles. We crushed the regime,” Netanyahu declared in a weekend statement.
Early in the conflict, Netanyahu predicted that Iranian citizens would “be called upon to take to the streets” and overthrow their government. Israeli security personnel have grown doubtful that such regime change will occur anytime soon, according to a senior military source.
Two Israeli government officials revealed that initial planning anticipated completing operations within three weeks. Instead, the conflict has evolved into a broader regional crisis with international ramifications.
Aviv Bushinsky, who previously advised Netanyahu, explained that the Iranian campaign initially helped restore the prime minister’s reputation, which had suffered following Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack that sparked the Gaza conflict.
Netanyahu’s tough stance against Hamas and Hezbollah initially appealed to segments of the Israeli population, but polling data shows his support has weakened over time.
Recent survey results from Hebrew University’s Agam Labs on April 11 revealed that only 10% of Israelis consider the war successful, while Netanyahu’s approval rating dropped to 34% from 40% when operations began. More than half of respondents rated his leadership performance as poor or very poor.
Regional political observers note that while the air-focused military strategy has achieved tactical victories and operational advances, it hasn’t created a coherent long-term strategic outcome.
“There is this idea that F-15s and F-35s (fighter jets) can shape or remake the Middle East – that if you kill enough Iranian leaders, the regime will fall,” Citrinowicz explained. “It’s a flawed assumption, and the cost of it keeps getting higher every time.”
Bushinsky questioned Israel’s emphasis on targeted assassinations, even though Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in such operations.
“There is always someone who replaces them,” Bushinsky noted. “It wakes the bear, it doesn’t kill it.”
Sources indicate that Netanyahu learned about a ceasefire agreement finalized last week only during its concluding phases. A Western official said the prime minister was frustrated by his exclusion from the negotiation process.
Since then, Netanyahu has worked to counter any impression that he was marginalized during the Pakistan-mediated discussions, issuing a Tuesday statement claiming U.S. Vice President JD Vance contacted him from his aircraft to update him on the talks.
The prime minister has also initiated efforts to persuade voters that the military campaign justifies its expenses.
Israel’s finance ministry reported Sunday that war-related costs have reached approximately $11.5 billion, with defense spending accounting for a substantial portion.
Regional diplomats suggest Netanyahu’s challenges will likely intensify without clear military victories, as security concerns persist in Gaza and the Israeli-controlled West Bank, while tensions with Lebanon continue.
Some analysts believe Netanyahu might attempt to prevent immediate diplomatic progress with Iran, calculating that a U.S.-Iran agreement could worsen his domestic political situation.
Netanyahu’s office has not responded to questions about this possibility.
Israeli officials have stated they would support any agreement that restricts Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities while removing enriched uranium stockpiles.
Iran policy experts suggest the conflict has reached a significant turning point for Washington, with Iran demonstrating its ability to survive confrontation with the U.S. while threatening adversaries through attacks on Gulf infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz control.
“You can’t put the genie back in the bottle,” Citrinowicz said regarding Iran’s strait control. “The Iranians feel strengthened now, they feel emboldened and they want much more than they were offered in previous talks.”
Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator, identified Gulf Arab nations as the primary casualties, facing the prospect of dealing with increasingly hostile Iranian leadership.
Abdulaziz Sager, who chairs the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, said Gulf states would accept increased confrontation risks with Iran if necessary to maintain strait access, rather than allowing Tehran to threaten maritime commerce or Gulf facilities.
