Leaders from all 32 NATO member nations are set to convene in Ankara, Turkey on Tuesday and Wednesday for a high-stakes alliance summit. The gathering comes as President Donald Trump continues to press European nations to dramatically increase their defense spending, and following months of friction between the U.S. and its European partners over the Iran war and the situation in Greenland.
Trump’s repeated criticism of the alliance, combined with announced withdrawals of American troops from Europe and a six-month review of U.S. military presence on the continent, has created significant uncertainty among alliance members heading into the summit.
What’s on the Agenda?
The Trump administration has been pushing hard for European nations to take on greater responsibility for their own defense and to significantly increase their defense investment. Officials anticipate that leaders will spend considerable time discussing progress toward spending targets, ramping up weapons manufacturing, and how to shift more of the defense burden from the United States to Europe.
Who Will Be in the Room?
In addition to the 32 NATO member nation leaders, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, European Council President Antonio Costa, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are all expected to join NATO leaders for a dinner on Tuesday evening.
What Will Leaders Say About Defense Spending?
European leaders are expected to demonstrate to Trump that they are making good on a commitment made at last year’s summit in The Hague — a pledge to spend 5% of gross domestic product on defense and defense-related measures by the year 2035.
According to a draft of the summit declaration reviewed by Reuters, leaders are expected to announce: “In 2025, European Allies and Canada increased their investments in core defence requirements by more than $139bn.”
The declaration is also expected to include this statement: “We are building the future: a stronger Europe in a stronger NATO — a modernised Alliance. European Allies and Canada, working with the United States, are assuming greater responsibility for the Alliance’s defence.”
Support for Ukraine
NATO members are expected to reaffirm their backing for Ukraine and commit to further military assistance. The draft declaration indicates leaders plan to say: “For 2026, Allies pledge €70bn in military equipment, assistance and training for Ukraine and affirm their sovereign commitments to sustaining at least equivalent levels in 2027.”
A portion of that funding will come from existing bilateral commitments and an EU loan facility providing €60 billion for Ukrainian defense investment and procurement covering 2026 through 2027. The United States is not expected to contribute to that funding pool.
Defense Industry Focus
While last year’s summit centered on agreeing to new spending pledges, this year’s focus is expected to shift toward actually scaling up weapons production and accelerating defense innovation. A defense industry forum will be held in Ankara on Tuesday, where deals worth tens of billions of dollars are anticipated to be announced.
Will Iran Be Discussed?
European officials are worried that the ongoing Iran conflict — and Trump’s frustration with European governments over their handling of it — could cast a shadow over the summit. The expected declaration states that “allies reiterate that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon and call on Iran to fully respect freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”
What Does Host Nation Turkey Want?
As the host country, Turkey is expected to use the summit to showcase its growing defense manufacturing capabilities and renew its longstanding push for alliance members to remove all restrictions on defense trade within NATO.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is also expected to seek progress with allies including France and Italy on the potential purchase of SAMP/T missile defense systems and broader defense cooperation agreements.
In one-on-one talks with Trump, Erdogan is expected to highlight the improving relationship between Ankara and Washington while pushing for the removal of U.S. sanctions and restored access to the F-35 fighter jet program.
Other Meetings on the Sidelines
On the margins of the summit, NATO foreign ministers are expected to meet with counterparts from Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, and to hold a dinner discussion with Ukraine’s foreign minister and European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. NATO defense ministers are also scheduled to hold talks with ministers from Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea.
