The 2024 midterm election season officially launched Tuesday as voters in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas headed to the polls for primary contests that will shape the battle for Congressional control during President Donald Trump’s final two years in office.
These initial primary elections will select Republican and Democratic candidates for November’s general election, when all 435 House seats and one-third of the Senate’s 100 positions will be decided by voters nationwide.
The voting occurs just days following U.S. military action against Iran, which some administration officials privately believe could create political challenges for Trump and GOP candidates as polling shows voters prioritize domestic concerns like cost of living and border security.
Democrats need to gain just three House seats to secure a majority in that chamber come November, while their path to Senate control remains more challenging. Historical trends show the president’s party typically suffers losses during midterm cycles, and Trump’s approval numbers have declined recently.
Should Democrats capture either chamber, they could obstruct Trump’s policy priorities and launch potentially damaging investigations into his administration.
LONE STAR STATE CONTEST HIGHLIGHTS PARTY DIVISIONS
The intense Texas Senate Republican primary has become an early indicator of internal party conflicts affecting both major parties.
Long-serving Senator John Cornyn, representing the GOP establishment after more than 20 years in Washington, faces a serious challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Trump loyalist who maintains strong support among MAGA voters despite numerous controversies.
Cornyn warns that a Paxton nomination could transform a reliably Republican seat into a competitive contest, potentially threatening the party’s narrow Senate control. Paxton counters by portraying Cornyn as disconnected from Texas voters’ priorities.
Both contenders emphasize their Trump allegiance, including support for the recent Iran military operations, though the former president hasn’t issued an official endorsement.
Republican Senate leadership supports Cornyn, with his allies spending $69 million on advertisements compared to Paxton’s $4 million, according to AdImpact data, demonstrating party concerns about the controversial Paxton candidacy.
With another conservative candidate, Representative Wesley Hunt, also competing, the race will likely proceed to a May runoff between the two highest vote-getters.
Among Democrats, state Representative James Talarico, who emphasizes his Christian beliefs and appeals to Republican voters, runs neck-and-neck with Representative Jasmine Crockett, whose sharp Trump criticism has earned national attention.
While Democrats have long sought to flip Texas, the party hasn’t won statewide since 1994. However, party officials believe the scandal-ridden Paxton—who survived Republican impeachment proceedings, faces securities fraud charges, and endured a public divorce—could be vulnerable in November.
Political experts still favor Paxton given Texas’s conservative voter base.
“Ken Paxton is still a Republican in a very Republican state that’s got a turnout machine that understands how to win elections,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor.
REDISTRICTING CREATES NEW COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
North Carolina voters will select nominees for another pivotal Senate contest, where Republican Thom Tillis’s retirement opened a seat in this battleground state.
Democrats hope former Governor Roy Cooper, facing minimal primary opposition, can capture the seat in November. The well-regarded Cooper has won six statewide campaigns.
Michael Whatley, former Republican National Committee chairman with Trump’s backing, leads public polling against six other GOP candidates.
Tuesday’s elections debut new congressional district maps in Texas and North Carolina, after Republican legislators redrew House boundaries last year at Trump’s direction to maximize GOP seats, sparking nationwide redistricting battles.
Several Texas House incumbents face potential defeat Tuesday. Republican Tony Gonzales, already battling a conservative YouTuber challenger, has resisted bipartisan resignation calls following allegations of a relationship with a female staffer who later died by suicide. Gonzales denies any wrongdoing.
In Houston’s vicinity, two Democratic incumbents, Al Green and Christian Menefee, compete against each other after redistricting eliminated Green’s former district.
