Venezuela’s most powerful earthquake in more than 100 years is presenting interim president Delcy Rodriguez with the toughest test of her young leadership — but political analysts say it could also give her a chance to assert control over a divided government and help put a battered nation back on its feet.
Two earthquakes, measuring magnitudes 7.2 and 7.5, struck Venezuela on Wednesday evening. The full scale of destruction may not be known for weeks, but data models from the U.S. government indicate the death toll could eventually climb above 10,000.
What is already apparent: a massive effort will be needed to rescue survivors, care for the injured, and rebuild homes and damaged infrastructure across the country.
That effort, analysts say, could shape Rodriguez’s entire political trajectory.
She has positioned herself as a force for change in Venezuela, despite having served as vice president under her predecessor, socialist Nicolas Maduro, who was removed from power by Washington in January. She has cultivated a close relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Tony Frangie Mawad, a political scientist based in Caracas, noted the irony of the moment. “The narrative of a new Venezuela is based on reconstruction,” he said. “It ends up being somewhat ironic that the country now has to face, with great difficulty, a very literal reconstruction of its infrastructure.”
Frangie warned that the recovery will face enormous obstacles given Venezuela’s prolonged economic crisis and its weakened public institutions — and that failure remains a real possibility.
But he also outlined a path to political gain. “However, if the government manages a recovery strategy well — especially with the international aid that is arriving — and handles the narrative effectively, it could use this moment to build a sense of national unity, a kind of ‘rally around the flag’ in the face of a natural disaster,” he said.
Rodriguez appears to be pursuing that very approach. In the immediate aftermath of the disaster, she declared, “In unity, we will overcome this situation.”
HISTORY SHOWS EARTHQUAKES CAN RESHAPE POLITICS
Significant U.S. involvement could prove decisive. In 1999, the late leader Hugo Chavez turned away American assistance after deadly landslides killed at least 10,000 people — an early indicator of the anti-U.S. stance that eventually deepened Venezuela’s international isolation. Rodriguez is taking a different approach.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio pledged on Thursday that the American response would be substantial. “It’ll be big. It’ll be fast, and it’ll be effective,” he said.
Analysts suggest that Trump administration aid could expand the U.S. footprint in Venezuela while also increasing the new government’s dependence on Washington.
Ricardo Rios, who leads the Caracas-based consultancy Poder & Estrategia, put it plainly: “It’s a situation that is going to be very well exploited to increase the presence of the United States and its control over Venezuela. And also, for Rodriguez to lean on the United States as her primary ally.”
Earthquakes have altered the course of Latin American politics before. In 1972, a devastating quake leveled much of Managua, killing between 5,000 and 10,000 people. The corrupt handling of the aftermath contributed to the downfall of President Anastasio Somoza, who was ultimately overthrown by the Sandinista revolution in 1979.
In 1985, a catastrophic earthquake struck Mexico City, killing at least 5,000 people and leaving roughly 100,000 homeless. The government’s bungled rescue response is widely seen as a turning point that eventually ended seven decades of one-party rule by the PRI.
In Venezuela’s case, Rodriguez stands to bear the political consequences of any missteps in the recovery effort.
Paul Angelo, a Latin America expert with the Washington-based consultancy McLarty Associates, was in Caracas when the quake struck. He described the scale of the challenge ahead.
“Venezuela’s capacity to handle emergency response has been hollowed out over 10 to 15 years of economic turmoil and displacement of 8 million people beyond Venezuelan borders,” he said. “Without major international assistance, and without a consolidated plan and lots of money infused into a country that is purportedly $240 billion in debt, this will be a long road to recovery.”
