Lithuanian intelligence officials issued a stark warning Friday about Russia’s military buildup along NATO’s borders, suggesting Moscow is positioning forces that could serve as staging areas for future conflicts with the Western alliance.
According to Lithuania’s annual security threat assessment released Friday, Russia could be prepared for a “wide-scale military conflict” with NATO within six years if international sanctions are removed.
“Russia would likely create not only a 30-50 percent larger army than it had before the war but also a relatively modern one. Strategic reserves of weapons and ammunition would be fully restored. Russia would be ready for a conventional military conflict with NATO,” the Lithuanian intelligence report said.
The assessment indicates that Moscow’s primary objectives include shifting Europe’s power balance in its favor and achieving complete control over Ukraine. Lithuanian officials noted that Russian forces are gaining combat experience in Ukraine while simultaneously strengthening border positions.
Russia’s defense ministry has not yet responded to requests for comment regarding the intelligence findings.
The report highlights how Russian military production has accelerated with Chinese assistance, allowing Moscow to decrease its dependence on Western technology. Intelligence officials warn that Russia’s excess weapons stockpiles following the conflict could create “consequences for global security.”
Lithuania, which shares borders with both Russia and its ally Belarus, has emerged as one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters and most vocal critics of Russian actions since joining NATO and the European Union.
The intelligence assessment referenced mysterious package explosions that occurred in 2024, which Lithuanian authorities attributed to Russian military intelligence operations that could potentially be expanded to cause casualties.
However, the report concluded that various gas pipeline disruptions, power cable failures, and telecommunications outages affecting the Baltic Sea region since 2023 were accidental, despite involving vessels departing from Russian ports. Officials did not explain their methodology for reaching this determination.
Baltic nations have maintained heightened security measures following these underwater infrastructure incidents since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. NATO leadership has announced plans to increase its regional military presence in response.
Finland retrieved an anchor in 2023 that authorities believe came from a Chinese cargo ship suspected of damaging the Estonia-Finland gas pipeline and multiple fiber-optic connections. That investigation continues, with Finnish officials declining to specify whether they consider the incident intentional or accidental.
When questioned about the pipeline and cable damage, Mindaugas Mazonas, Lithuania’s military intelligence chief, told reporters: “The investigation was not undertaken by our intelligence… but we have the answer that this was a non-intentional incident.”
