A far-right political movement in Italy is showing no signs of slowing down, with a fresh opinion survey released Friday indicating the party continues to pull support away from the country’s ruling coalition — a development that could make Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s path to re-election more difficult next year.
Futuro Nazionale, founded in February by former army general Roberto Vannacci after he broke from the co-governing League party, has emerged as Italy’s fifth most popular political party, according to polling firm YouTrend.
The party now sits at 7.6% in the polls — a rise of more than one percentage point since July 3. It has consistently outperformed the League and is now nipping at the heels of Forza Italia, the second-largest party within Meloni’s governing coalition.
YouTrend chief Lorenzo Pregliasco noted the dramatic closing of the gap between the two parties. “It is now very close. At the start, the gap was more than four percentage points, but that has now virtually been erased,” he said.
Meloni’s own party, Brothers of Italy, still leads all others at 26.4%, though its numbers have softened in recent weeks. A separate survey published this month by pollster Ipsos found that Vannacci is drawing support from voters who previously backed the League and Brothers of Italy, as well as from Italians who sat out the 2024 European election entirely.
Vannacci’s political platform is firmly rooted in hard-right populism. He supports what he calls “remigration” — a policy that would involve expelling immigrants and their descendants to their countries of origin — and champions traditional family values.
Whether Futuro Nazionale will eventually align with Meloni’s political bloc before the next election remains to be seen. So far, coalition leaders have responded to that possibility with little enthusiasm.
At present, the centre-left opposition holds a slim lead over Meloni’s coalition, with polls last week averaging 44.3% for the opposition compared to 42.2% for the ruling alliance. However, that balance could shift if Vannacci’s party were brought into a right-wing electoral alliance.
YouTrend data shows that nearly two-thirds of Futuro Nazionale’s supporters would welcome a deal with the centre-right, and a majority of Brothers of Italy backers would also support such a move. However, voters aligned with the League and Forza Italia are largely opposed to the idea.
