JERUSALEM (AP) — For the majority of the last 17 years, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has maintained his grip on power largely through a strong partnership with ultra-Orthodox religious factions.
However, this partnership is now fracturing his governing coalition and creating another significant challenge for the veteran Israeli leader as the nation prepares for elections scheduled for later this year. The October 7, 2023, assault — along with the unresolved conflicts that followed — are also creating pressure on his leadership.
Following 2 1/2 years of continuous combat across multiple regions, much of it requiring reservists, numerous Israelis have grown weary of an established arrangement that permits ultra-Orthodox men to avoid military duty. This frustration has reached even Netanyahu’s own political supporters.
The ultra-Orthodox community is simultaneously outraged by his inability to make their exemptions legal. They pulled their coalition backing two weeks ago, resulting in a preliminary vote to disband parliament, called the Knesset, on Wednesday.
This action initiated a sequence that could advance elections from October to September.
Netanyahu continues attempting to advance legislation that would make the exemptions legal and honor a commitment to his religious allies, but this seems unlikely given the fierce resistance from many within his own coalition.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel, who completed three years in a combat unit and strongly backs Netanyahu, stated she was among no fewer than seven coalition members who will oppose the draft legislation, making it impossible to pass.
“The ultra-Orthodox are trying to extort us. It’s immoral. It’s not fair,” Haskel declared, wearing her military uniform during Wednesday’s dissolution vote to emphasize her opposition and showcase her own military background.
Two significant ultra-Orthodox parties abandoned Netanyahu this month after he informed them he didn’t anticipate being able to advance the exemptions legislation. This departure stripped his coalition of a parliamentary majority and represents one of the primary reasons for the Knesset dissolution bill.
“He made a promise to his most loyal allies in the coalition, and he could not deliver, he kept postponing,” explained Shmuel Rosner, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank.
Yitzhak Pindrus, a legislator from one of the groups, informed The Associated Press on Tuesday that his faction has no intentions of rejoining the coalition.
“We need the draft bill,” he stated.
Israel’s political environment is extremely divided, and no single party has ever secured a majority in the 120-member Knesset.
Rather, parties must form partnerships to assemble a majority, which frequently requires negotiations that grant smaller parties disproportionate power.
The ultra-Orthodox presently hold 18 Knesset seats, comparable to previous years, but have remained essential to Netanyahu. In return for his backing of government funding and the draft exemptions, they have supported him through regional conflicts and ongoing corruption charges.
Netanyahu has historically depended on “automatic support” from the ultra-Orthodox, noted Gilad Malach, an expert on the ultra-Orthodox at the Israel Democracy Institute, a research organization in Jerusalem.
This backing enabled Netanyahu to stay in office through the most devastating attack in Israel’s history.
The coalition, which also encompasses ultra-nationalist parties, “was much more stable than I ever imagined,” Rosner observed. “Maybe it’s because they realized in a new election, they’re going to get defeated, and that’s why they stuck together.”
Should Netanyahu somehow advance some version of the draft exemption legislation, it could dramatically reshape the electoral landscape. It would drive large portions of the population, who have previously backed Netanyahu but are struggling under hundreds of days of reserve service, to support opposition parties that promise equal military duty, Malach explained.
Netanyahu seems to have minimal prospects of continuing as prime minister following October’s elections without ultra-Orthodox backing. And he likely represents their sole opportunity for legislation that would prevent mandatory enlistment from being considered in the next government.
Yet maintaining ties with the ultra-Orthodox threatens to damage Netanyahu’s position with the general public, creating a dilemma as the country approaches elections.
Most Jewish men must complete nearly three years of military duty, followed by years of reserve service. Jewish women serve two mandatory years.
Annually, approximately 13,000 ultra-Orthodox men reach the draft age of 18, but fewer than 10% join the military, according to a parliamentary committee.
Confronting severe soldier shortages, the military is considering extending the mandatory service period.
The ultra-Orthodox, who comprise roughly 13% of Israeli society and represent the fastest expanding demographic, have historically received exemptions when studying full-time in religious seminaries. The exemptions trace back to the state’s founding in 1948, when a small group of students sought to rebuild the Jewish scholarship tradition after it was destroyed by the Holocaust.
These exemptions — along with the government payments many seminary students receive until age 26 — have angered many Israelis. Israel currently maintains simultaneous military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, while also fighting a conflict with Iran, which has strained its strong military to its limits.
The Supreme Court declared the exemptions illegal in 2017, but repeated extensions and government stalling tactics have kept them active.
Within Israel’s Jewish majority, mandatory military duty is widely viewed as a unifying experience and coming-of-age ritual. Many in the isolated ultra-Orthodox community worry that military service would subject young people to secular influences.
