Military experts and intelligence officials warn that Iran possesses the capability to maintain drone strikes against the vital Strait of Hormuz for extended periods, though questions remain about the sustainability of their missile operations.
Following weekend strikes by the United States and Israel against Iranian targets, Tehran has responded by firing hundreds of missiles and deploying over 1,000 drones against Gulf nations aligned with Washington. While most projectiles were stopped by defensive systems, several residential areas, commercial structures, infrastructure sites, and American military installations have been damaged.
Intelligence assessments reveal Iran’s substantial drone manufacturing capabilities. The Centre for Information Resilience, a British Foreign Office-funded research organization, estimates Tehran can manufacture approximately 10,000 drones monthly through its industrial facilities.
Iran’s missile inventory remains uncertain, with Israeli military estimates placing the stockpile at 2,500 weapons, while other defense analysts suggest numbers closer to 6,000. The remaining ammunition levels could significantly influence the conflict’s trajectory.
The strategic waterway between Iran and Oman has become a primary target, with Iranian forces successfully striking six commercial vessels. This vital shipping lane handles twenty percent of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas transport, and maritime traffic has nearly ceased following the attacks.
Market reactions have been swift, with Brent crude prices jumping twelve percent and European natural gas benchmarks climbing roughly fifty percent this week.
Bob McNally, who leads Rapidan Energy Group, emphasized Iran’s determination and capabilities. “Iran is not going to fold easily or quickly, they have the means to make it unsafe for commercial traffic to flow through Hormuz,” McNally explained.
He added that American forces are focusing their efforts on Iranian ammunition depots, launch sites, and facilities threatening the strait. “But all Iran has to do is show they can hit a few tankers and concern will take care of the rest, folks just won’t go through,” McNally noted.
A former British MI6 intelligence director identified missile resupply as Iran’s weak point. Russia lacks the capacity to provide replacements, while China will likely exercise caution in supporting Tehran militarily, the official explained.
“If it became known that China was actually providing some sort of serious military hardware to Iran, that would play very badly with the GCC states,” the intelligence veteran said, referencing Gulf Cooperation Council members including Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.
Another Western intelligence source suggested Iran’s missile reserves may be depleted from previous support to Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen. Israeli military intelligence indicates stocks were further reduced during June’s twelve-day conflict with Israel, though some supplies have been replenished.
Missile launcher availability presents another significant limitation. British CIR research shows launcher supplies have decreased by at least half over the past year due to Israeli and American strikes, with further reductions in recent days.
Despite these constraints, Iran appears well-positioned to continue drone operations. Washington Institute senior fellow Farzin Nadimi notes that Iran’s newest Shahed-136 drones can travel 700 to 1,000 kilometers, providing sufficient range to target any location along the southern Gulf coastline when launched from Iranian territory or naval vessels.
Production flexibility enhances Iran’s drone capabilities, with many units manufactured at dual-purpose facilities that can be modified to increase output, according to CIR analysts.
These unmanned aircraft have successfully breached Gulf state air defenses, with 65 drones penetrating United Arab Emirates airspace since hostilities began. Targets have included Amazon data facilities, Dubai International Airport, and a Fairmont hotel. Bahrain has experienced infrastructure damage, including strikes on a U.S. naval installation and a mixed-use tower housing hotel and residential units.
Oil market participants are preparing for additional price increases as the duration of Strait of Hormuz disruptions becomes clearer in coming days.
A senior Vitol executive expressed significant concern about market underestimation of current risks. “I am very concerned, this risk is currently underpriced in oil markets,” the commodity trading house official stated. “The prevalent theory is that Iran is using old missiles and drones first to deplete air defences. If so, their response is yet to start properly.”
Should missile and drone supplies become exhausted, Iran could resort to naval mining operations. Maritime risk intelligence firm Dryad Global estimates Tehran maintains between 5,000 and 6,000 sea mines in its arsenal.
These explosive devices can be anchored to the ocean floor, rocket-launched, or allowed to drift freely, detonating upon vessel contact. Current analysis shows no evidence of mine deployment in the Strait of Hormuz.
Cormac McCarry, who directs maritime intelligence and security operations at Control Risks, warned of prolonged consequences from mining operations. “If sea mines are laid, it will take a long time to deal with them,” McCarry explained. “That’s where we will be looking at months of destruction.”
