A super El Niño is expected to shake up global weather patterns and put pressure on food production worldwide, but near-record grain stockpiles, favorable conditions in some major growing regions, and proactive planning may help reduce the damage.
El Niño typically brings heat and dry conditions to much of Asia while delivering heavy rainfall to the Americas. Meteorologists warn the current event is expected to intensify, potentially rivaling past record occurrences that wiped out crops, sparked social unrest, and caused tens of billions of dollars in economic losses globally.
Shirley Mustafa, an economist with the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation, offered some cautious optimism: “There is a bit of silver lining as far as global stocks and recent harvests of rice and other cereals is concerned,” she said, noting that world inventories are positioned to absorb some of the blow.
The last super El Niño, which struck in 2015–16, brought droughts, floods, and record-breaking temperatures that disrupted farming from Asia to Africa. The one before that, in 1997–98, triggered devastating floods, wildfires, and widespread crop failures.
However, the 2026/27 event may play out differently. Back-to-back years of record harvests have built up global food reserves, particularly in major consuming and exporting nations.
According to USDA data, global wheat stockpiles are projected to hit 279.95 million metric tons at the start of the crop year on July 1 — the highest level in five years.
Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, is currently bringing in a bumper crop, along with other major producers in the Northern Hemisphere. Some concern remains over the U.S. wheat harvest, which has been hurt by drought conditions.
A trader based in Singapore said wheat buyers in importing countries aren’t alarmed at this point. “Wheat millers in importing countries are not worried about supplies at this stage,” the trader said. “There are no issues with supplies over the next four to six months, given the Black Sea harvest.”
Global milled rice reserves hit an all-time high of 196.16 million tons at the start of 2026. India, which is responsible for roughly 40% of global rice exports, is holding stocks at approximately five times its government’s target.
A New Delhi-based dealer with a global trading firm, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to speak with media, pointed to India’s history of restricting exports during previous El Niño years when production came under strain. “But with record wheat and rice inventories this year, the government is unlikely to restrict rice exports,” the dealer added.
Indonesia, one of the world’s biggest rice importers, is also sitting on a record stockpile. Farmers there are rushing to plant rice early in hopes of getting ahead of any El Niño disruption, officials said.
Sutarto Alimoeso, head of Indonesia’s Rice Millers and Rice Entrepreneurs Association, said the country’s ability to weather the storm will hinge on how well it prepares, including upgrades to irrigation and water pump infrastructure.
In Thailand, the world’s third-largest rice exporter, reservoir levels are at their highest point in a decade — a development analysts say should benefit newly planted crops.
On the corn and soybean front, the USDA projects global corn inventories will reach 303.4 million tons by September 1, the highest in three years. Soybean stockpiles are forecast at 125.5 million tons, just shy of last year’s record of 126 million tons.
Tobin Gorey, founder of commodities consultancy Cornucopia in Sydney, said the current supply situation changes how markets are reacting. “A strong El Niño forecast would have had a different impact on prices if the world supply was tight,” he said.
Commodity prices reflected the ample supply picture this week, with Chicago corn falling to a nine-month low, soybeans sliding to a four-month low, and wheat hitting its weakest point in two months, driven by favorable U.S. weather and softer oil prices.
While Australia, Southeast Asia, and India face the greatest risks from El Niño, China, the Black Sea region, and Europe are expected to see less severe weather impacts. A research paper published by Britain’s parliament this week noted that “the European weather system is geographically far away from El Niño, and although there are sometimes links between El Niño conditions and European weather patterns, these can be hard to predict.”
In Indonesia and Malaysia — the world’s top palm oil producers — most areas are still receiving rainfall. Gulat Manurung, chairman of Indonesia’s smallholders group APKASINDO, said conditions remain generally suitable for palm oil growth, though the frequency of rain has decreased. “Looking broadly across Kalimantan and Sumatra, sunshine is still accompanied by rainfall, with conditions remaining suitable for palm oil growth,” he said.
Analysts also noted that newer palm oil tree varieties planted in recent years are more resistant to drought, and that the trees have gradually adapted to higher temperatures since the 1997–98 El Niño event.
Despite the relatively comfortable supply picture, experts caution that panic-driven government reactions and export restrictions could still tighten grain availability for buyers worldwide.
FAO’s Mustafa warned that history has shown how quickly governments can move to protect domestic supplies. “We have seen it in the past how governments react to supply risks and take measures to ensure sufficient local supplies,” she said. “Much of that will depend how importers take decisions on purchases and exporters keep the supply pipeline running.”
