Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham took a significant step toward his goal of replacing fellow Labour member Keir Starmer as Britain’s prime minister after winning a parliamentary seat on Friday.
His commanding victory — capturing 54.8% of the vote — has reinforced the belief among some members of the ruling Labour Party that Burnham is the only figure capable of defeating Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK party in a future national election.
That sentiment has led some within the party to discuss the possibility of a smooth, uncontested transition, in which Starmer would step aside voluntarily rather than face a drawn-out leadership battle.
Roughly a quarter of Starmer’s fellow lawmakers have called on the prime minister to step down following Labour’s worst local election performance by a governing party in more than 30 years — a defeat largely attributed to a wave of support for Farage’s anti-immigration movement.
Burnham has publicly stated he intends to enter any leadership race and is currently considered the leading candidate to succeed Starmer. However, his supporters are still working through the details of when and how to mount a formal challenge.
Former health minister Wes Streeting has also indicated he has sufficient lawmaker support to enter a leadership contest.
Here is a look at the possible routes Burnham could take to replace Starmer:
Starmer Agrees to a Peaceful Transfer of Power
One scenario involves Burnham simply inheriting the leadership without a fight. A number of Labour politicians have encouraged Starmer to publicly outline a timeline for his exit rather than waiting for — and then competing in — a formal leadership election. A contested race, they warn, could harm the party if candidates resort to personal attacks.
If Starmer chose not to run, and Burnham secured enough parliamentary backing while other potential candidates fell short, Burnham would ascend to the prime ministership. Some lawmakers have also floated the idea that Streeting could be offered a high-ranking position — such as finance minister — in a future Burnham government, in exchange for staying out of the race.
Burnham Moves Quickly to Formally Challenge Starmer
Burnham is set to be sworn into parliament next week, which would allow him to officially challenge Starmer. Under Labour Party rules, only members of parliament are eligible to lead the government.
The party’s rules for removing a sitting leader are strict. Rather than simply expressing a lack of confidence in the current leader, challengers must rally behind specific candidates. Any contender must gather support from at least 20% of the party’s lawmakers in the House of Commons — currently equivalent to 81 members, including the challenger.
If Burnham opts to act quickly, he would likely need to declare his challenge before parliament enters its summer recess on July 16, when lawmakers return to their home constituencies for work and holidays.
Starmer holds the automatic right to compete in any leadership contest and has said he plans to do so. Once candidates collect backing from local party branches and trade unions, party members would cast the deciding votes. The entire process could span two to three months.
Burnham Holds Off Until After Summer
Alternatively, Burnham could wait until after the summer recess before making his move. That delay would allow him to focus on supporting the Labour candidate in the upcoming Greater Manchester mayoral election, expected around the end of July.
The extra time would also give Burnham an opportunity to strengthen ties with Labour lawmakers — particularly those who entered parliament after he departed in 2017. A Starmer ally, housing minister Steve Reed, suggested in the wake of the by-election that Labour’s immediate priority should be winning the Greater Manchester mayoralty.
A Different Politician Kicks Off the Contest
There is also the possibility that someone other than Burnham triggers a leadership challenge, with Burnham then choosing to enter the race.
Streeting, who resigned from his role as health minister in May, has suggested Starmer should reflect on his future over the coming weekend. If the prime minister fails to lay out a plan for his exit, Streeting has signaled he is ready to mount a challenge in the near term.
Should Starmer and Streeting both run against Burnham in a vote among Labour members, current polling indicates Burnham would come out on top.
