FRANKFURT — A sweeping rise in artificial intelligence adoption has not significantly dented overall employment or wage levels in the United States, according to a new study released Monday by the European Central Bank.
Companies have poured money into AI technology in recent years, fueling widespread concern that machines could increasingly replace human workers — reducing job opportunities and deepening economic inequality. But the latest data suggest those fears have not materialized on a large scale, at least not yet.
The ECB’s Economic Bulletin article concludes that the U.S. economy began adapting to the AI wave several years ago, with workers from the most at-risk fields gradually moving into other parts of the job market, quietly reshaping how Americans work.
“All else being equal, between 2019 and 2025 jobs with a high substitution risk grew by around 15 percentage points less than jobs with a low substitution risk,” the ECB stated.
Positions considered highly vulnerable to being replaced by AI — including economists and graphic designers — saw employment fall by more than 4% on average between 2019 and 2025. Meanwhile, roles considered less likely to be automated, such as electricians and high school teachers, saw employment climb by 13% over the same timeframe.
The overall makeup of the U.S. workforce has shifted as a result. Low-risk jobs now make up 25% of total employment, up from 23%, while the share of high-risk jobs has slipped from 35% to 33%.
When it comes to pay, the study found no notable impact so far. “AI substitution risk has had no significant impact on wage growth since 2019,” the ECB wrote. But the report left open the possibility of bigger changes ahead: “Over time, as the labour market continues to adjust and AI tools become more generative, income effects may be more pronounced.”
