Recent disease outbreaks on ocean liners haven’t dampened travelers’ enthusiasm for cruise vacations, according to travel industry analysts and cruise company representatives.
Travel experts predict a record-breaking year for cruise passengers worldwide, even after three travelers died from hantavirus following their voyage on the MV Hondius that made a stop in Argentina, and a separate norovirus incident occurred on a British vessel while docked in Bordeaux, France.
“The cruise consumer seems to be somewhat Teflon when it comes to stories like this,” said Rob Kwortnik, an associate professor at Cornell University’s Nolan School of Hotel Administration who closely watches the cruise industry.
The Cruise Lines International Association released projections in mid-April showing 38.3 million travelers are expected to sail on ocean vessels this year, representing a 4% increase from the previous record of 37.2 million passengers in the prior year.
Major cruise operators keep their sales data private. When questioned about possible effects from the MV Hondius incident, the trade association declined to discuss or speculate about booking trends. Royal Caribbean, Norwegian and Carnival did not respond to inquiries from The Associated Press regarding customer demand.
The Dutch company Oceanwide Expeditions, which operates the MV Hondius, stated it anticipates no operational changes. The company has a voyage departing from Keflavik, Iceland, scheduled for May 29.
Experienced cruise travelers indicated the recent outbreak wouldn’t alter their vacation plans.
“I have eight cruises booked, and I’ll absolutely be booking another,” said Jenni Fielding, who blogs and posts social media videos about cruise trips under the moniker Cruise Mummy. “Cruising is as safe as any other type of holiday, provided travelers follow sensible health advice and stay aware of official guidance.”
Scott Eddy, a hospitality influencer, is currently on a cruise and docked in Monaco. Fellow passengers have not mentioned the hantavirus outbreak, he said.
“The average traveler understands that this is an isolated health situation and not something unique to cruise travel itself,” Eddy said.
CruiseCompete.com, an online marketplace where consumers making vacation plans can compare offers from travel agents, booked 31.7% more cabins in the first half of May compared to the same period last year, CEO Bob Levinstein said.
“I can categorically say that we have not seen any drop in demand,” Levinstein said.
Levinstein explained that norovirus — a highly contagious stomach illness that spreads rapidly in crowded settings — becomes associated with cruises in many Americans’ minds because the U.S. Centers for Disease Control requires ships to disclose when 3% or more passengers report symptoms.
On a ship with 5,000 passengers, an illness impacting 3% of them “goes completely unnoticed by the vast majority of vacationers, and experienced cruisers know this,” he said.
Current news cycles rarely impact passengers’ decisions to join a cruise because the trips generally are booked at least 6 months — and often as much as a year – in advance, Kwortnik said.
“People who are booking cruises tomorrow are thinking about the holidays,” he said.
During a conference call Thursday with investors, Switzerland-based cruise line Viking said demand for its river cruises softened briefly during the first three months of this year after the Iran war began but then quickly rebounded.
Viking said 92% of its 2026 cruises and 38% of its 2027 cruises were booked. The company didn’t mention hantavirus or norovirus.
Andrew Coggins, a cruise industry analyst and professor in Pace University’s Lubin School of Business, said even if travelers set to embark on a cruise soon are unnerved by the latest news, they’re unlikely to get a refund.
“I think if there’s any impact on demand, it would be in the long term. If you’re cruising in the next few months, you’re past the point at which you can get your money back,” he said.
Coggins believes the hantavirus incident received significant media coverage because it brought back memories of the Diamond Princess, which was quarantined near Japan for two weeks in early 2020 after coronavirus was discovered aboard the ship during the early stages of what became a global pandemic.
The COVID-19 pandemic severely damaged the cruise industry, forcing many smaller companies out of business. Passenger numbers didn’t begin recovering until 2022, Coggins said.
Fewer cruise passengers from China and Japan are traveling compared to pre-COVID levels, according to CLIA. However, Coggins noted that demand in other markets is thriving.
“There are new ships on order out to 2037. The cruise lines are bullish. They see demand growing and they want to offer new bells and whistles, new ports, new destinations,” he said.
Cruising’s expansion stems partly from its broad appeal across different age groups and income brackets. A recent U.S. survey by Bank of America showed Generation Z respondents and millennials were most likely to indicate they planned to cruise within the next 12 months.
The survey also revealed that cruise spending increased for lower-income households even as those families reduced spending on airfare and lodging. Cruise companies have been targeting these customers recently with shorter, more budget-friendly trip options.
Kwortnik noted that cruising provides travelers with good value for their vacation investment.
“On average, it costs more just to stay at a hotel in Miami than it does to sail on a cruise out of Miami – and the cruise includes lodging, multiple destinations, food, entertainment, and transportation all in the fare,” he said.
