WASHINGTON – Intelligence analysts concluded that Iran’s military elite would probably seize control if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei perished during recent U.S.-Israeli military operations, according to two sources with knowledge of the classified briefings.
The Central Intelligence Agency’s analysis, compiled during the two weeks leading up to Saturday’s strikes, examined various outcomes that might follow American military intervention and whether such actions could successfully topple Iran’s current government – a stated goal of the Trump administration.
Sources familiar with the intelligence reports, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the information, emphasized that analysts did not definitively predict any single outcome.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an elite military organization dedicated to preserving Shi’ite Muslim clerical authority in Iran, would most likely fill any power vacuum, the assessments indicated.
The CIA refused to provide comment on the intelligence evaluations.
For several weeks, President Donald Trump has publicly expressed interest in seeing Iran’s government overthrown, though he has not detailed Washington’s preferred replacement leadership.
During a Saturday morning video statement, Trump labeled Tehran a “terrorist regime” and urged Iranian citizens to overthrow their government, claiming the military strikes would create conditions for a popular revolt.
The combined U.S.-Israeli assault followed extensive internal government discussions about whether to target Iran after December’s deadly demonstrations there.
American diplomats recently attempted to negotiate a nuclear agreement with Tehran as a way to prevent military action.
During congressional briefings last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed the Gang of Eight leadership that military operations would probably proceed, while noting Trump might reconsider if nuclear talks succeeded. The Geneva negotiations ultimately failed to produce an accord.
On Friday evening, Rubio alerted the Gang of Eight that Iranian strikes would likely begin within hours, though he indicated the president could still reverse course, two informed sources revealed.
