Canada’s Prime Minister issued a stern warning Monday about Alberta’s upcoming referendum on potentially leaving the country, describing the non-binding vote as potentially becoming “a dangerous bluff.”
The western oil-producing province announced last week its intention to hold a non-binding referendum this October asking residents whether they want Alberta to stay part of Canada.
Drawing from his experience during Britain’s exit from the European Union, the Prime Minister referenced the ongoing complications from that 2016 decision. “I saw firsthand what happened in the United Kingdom … They’re still 10 years later trying to undo what people didn’t think they were voting for, but what they ended up having,” he stated.
October’s ballot will ask Albertans if their province should continue as part of Canada or if officials should begin constitutional procedures needed for a future binding independence vote.
“Is it helpful to ask these fundamental questions? No, it’s not helpful, of course it’s not,” the Prime Minister told reporters. “Is it the democratic will of Albertans? Did they vote for this in the last provincial election? No, they didn’t.”
Alberta’s right-of-center United Conservative Party made no mention of separation during their successful 2023 provincial campaign.
A new Angus Reid survey released Monday shows 60% of Alberta residents would choose to remain in Canada, with 67% opposing a binding independence referendum if one were eventually scheduled.
Separation supporters cite frustration with environmental policies from the Prime Minister’s predecessor, which they claim damaged Alberta’s oil and gas sector. The current Prime Minister has reversed several of those environmental measures since assuming office in March 2025.
Having served as governor of the Bank of England during Brexit, the Prime Minister cautioned against arguments that supporting a non-binding vote would improve Alberta’s negotiating position with Ottawa.
“This is an observation from experience. In these separation issues, it’s often advanced that, ‘Vote for this, and it’s a free option, vote for this, and we will strengthen our hand in future negotiation.’ That is a very dangerous bluff,” he explained.
This October vote would represent the first instance in Canadian history where a province other than Quebec has presented separation as a public question.
The referendum is anticipated to create divisions both within Alberta and across Canada, as the Prime Minister works to maintain national unity while addressing U.S. trade tariffs and upcoming negotiations for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.
