Australia’s top intelligence official is sounding the alarm about a worsening national security landscape, saying the country faces overlapping dangers from authoritarian governments, cybercriminals, and antisemitic extremists that are collectively eroding the nation’s safety.
Australian Security Intelligence Organisation Director-General Mike Burgess delivered the warning during his annual threat assessment speech Wednesday night, saying that while Australia’s terrorism threat level officially remains at “probable,” that label fails to capture the full picture of what the country is facing.
“‘Probable’ does not tell the full story. The next level on the scale is ‘expected,’ which applies when we have intelligence about a specific attack. We do not,” Burgess said. “But we do know the environment is degrading and acts of politically motivated violence are becoming more likely than ‘probable’ suggests.”
The assessment comes after a turbulent year that included online radicalization cases, state-sponsored cyberattacks, arson targeting Jewish-owned businesses, and a mass shooting in Sydney. Burgess noted that ASIO has disrupted 31 major terror plots since 2014 and has closed more than a dozen major terror-related cases since a mass shooting at Bondi Beach in December, during a Jewish Hanukkah celebration, that left 15 people dead. Police have said the two alleged gunmen appeared to have been inspired by the Islamic State militant group.
Burgess defended how ASIO allocated its resources in the lead-up to the Bondi Beach attack, explaining that the agency was simultaneously managing numerous threats and that it was extremely difficult to “simplistically pivot” from one danger to another.
“We cannot stop every terrorist, just as we cannot catch every spy. But we continue to work around the clock to keep Australians safe,” he said.
The spy chief also highlighted the growing role of technology in fueling extremism, saying encrypted messaging platforms are radicalizing individuals — including minors — within just weeks. Social media, he added, is amplifying grievances, eroding public trust in institutions, and deepening societal divisions.
On the espionage front, Burgess said foreign intelligence operatives are actively trying to steal classified information related to Australia’s AUKUS nuclear submarine partnership with the United States and Britain. He cited one case where an official with a security clearance was approached by someone posing as a representative of a consulting firm.
Burgess also pointed the finger at Iran for a series of arson attacks on Jewish businesses in Australia since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict. He said one attack on a Sydney restaurant was likely coordinated by an Australian citizen living in Iran who was working as an agent within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Iranian embassy did not respond to a request for comment.
“Thankfully, no-one died as a result of the arson attacks…but I do worry that one day an Australian will be killed at the hands of a foreign government here in Australia,” Burgess said.
Australia formally accused Iran of directing two antisemitic arson attacks in Sydney and Melbourne in August 2025 and expelled Tehran’s ambassador — the country’s first such diplomatic expulsion since World War Two.
Despite the sobering assessment, Burgess expressed confidence that Australia is well-positioned to confront these threats going forward.
