Airbus has trimmed its industry-wide outlook for passenger jet demand over the next two decades, citing the ongoing Iran war and global trade tensions as forces that have stalled what had been a strong aviation rebound following the COVID-19 pandemic.
The world’s largest aircraft manufacturer, releasing its updated forecast on Wednesday, said it still anticipates solid demand for new jets — with Asia leading the way and expected to account for roughly half of all deliveries — but acknowledged that a series of crises have dampened earlier projections.
“That post-COVID recovery has effectively flattened,” said Antonio Da Costa, the company’s head of market analysis, speaking to reporters.
The revised forecast covers the entire commercial aviation industry, including aircraft produced by rival Boeing as well as China’s emerging manufacturers. Airbus now projects 42,060 total passenger jet deliveries between 2026 and 2045 — a 1% reduction from its previous rolling 20-year estimate.
Within that total, the forecast calls for 33,920 single-aisle jets — a category that includes the Airbus A320neo family and Boeing’s 737 MAX — along with 8,140 wide-body, long-haul aircraft. Both segments are down 1% compared to the prior forecast.
The numbers suggest that production plans already announced by Airbus and Boeing would largely fill projected demand, while still leaving room for China’s C919 jet to carve out a share of the market in the coming years. Industry analysts say this points to a gradual easing of the widespread aircraft shortages that have plagued airlines in recent years.
Airbus also updated its projections on fleet replacement, now expecting 47% of total deliveries to go toward swapping out older jets rather than growing fleet sizes — up from the previous estimate of 45%.
On passenger traffic growth, the European planemaker revised its headline annual growth figure upward to 3.9% from 3.6%. However, company executives noted that on a comparable basis, this actually represents a downgrade from a prior estimate of 4.1%. Airbus did not release any updated projections for cargo aircraft demand.
The lowered long-term growth outlook reflects a more cautious view of aviation’s future, as airlines pull back on capacity expansion plans in response to higher fuel costs driven by the Iran conflict.
One bright spot in the forecast is the Middle East. Despite an ongoing fragile ceasefire in the Iran conflict, Gulf aviation hubs have largely returned to normal traffic volumes, Airbus said.
India remains the world’s fastest-growing air travel market, with Airbus raising its annual domestic traffic growth forecast for the country to 9.1%, up from 8.9%. Meanwhile, the company lowered its growth projection for China’s domestic market to 4.7%, down from 5.4%.
Both Airbus and Boeing have long pointed to aviation’s resilience in the face of major disruptions — from the September 11 attacks to the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. But Da Costa noted that as the industry matures, long-term growth rates are beginning to slow. Airlines are also extending the operational life of their existing jets, fitting more passengers into each flight, and could see further efficiency gains from artificial intelligence.
In its latest forecast edition, Airbus drew attention to the growing role of smaller cities as a driver of future demand, highlighting aircraft such as the A220 and the narrow-body A321XLR, which are capable of connecting passengers without routing them through major hub airports.
The shift marks a notable change in strategy. A decade ago, the company was emphasizing the importance of serving large “megacities” with its A380 superjumbo — the world’s biggest commercial airliner — a program that has since been discontinued due to insufficient demand.
