Residents of Makerfield, a former coal mining district near Manchester in northern England, cast their votes Thursday in a by-election that carries far-reaching consequences for British national politics.
At the center of the race is Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, 56, who is seeking to return to parliament. Should he win, political observers say he would be positioned to mount a challenge to deeply unpopular Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party — potentially making Burnham Britain’s seventh prime minister in just over ten years.
The by-election was triggered when a fellow Labour Party member resigned his parliamentary seat. The vacancy drew an unusual level of national attention to the area, given what the outcome could mean for the future of the country’s governing party.
Burnham has attempted to frame the race around local concerns, pointing to his personal ties to the region — he lives nearby and his three children attended school there. But rival candidates have accused him of treating the election as little more than a launchpad for national ambitions, particularly after he began offering hints about how he might lead the country.
Speaking to party supporters in remarks also broadcast on the social media platform X on Wednesday evening, Burnham declared: “Change is coming, but the question tonight is ‘what kind of change?’” He added, “A vote for me is a vote to end 40 years of trickle-down economics that didn’t trickle down much at all to people here.”
Labour flooded Makerfield with senior ministers and dozens of lawmakers in the run-up to the vote and is cautiously optimistic that Burnham can defeat Reform UK’s candidate, Robert Kenyon, a self-employed plumber who also hails from the area. Reform UK is the populist party led by Brexit advocate Nigel Farage. Polling shows Burnham ahead, though Reform’s support has been somewhat reduced by competition from a newer right-wing party called Restore Britain.
If Burnham secures a win, he has made clear he intends to enter any leadership race against Starmer, though he may not move immediately. Another potential challenger, former health minister Wes Streeting, has said he is ready to force a leadership contest if Starmer does not voluntarily step aside — something Streeting has publicly called for.
Starmer, 63, has repeatedly pushed back against calls to resign, noting that he has “always battled against the odds” — pointing to how he guided Labour from its worst election defeat in 84 years in 2019 to a landslide victory in 2024. He has pledged to fight any leadership challenge.
Nevertheless, multiple senior Labour lawmakers suggest Starmer might be persuaded to hand power to Burnham voluntarily, given that Burnham appears to have strong support among Labour’s members of parliament. The thinking is that a negotiated transition could spare the party a drawn-out leadership contest that might further damage its standing with voters ahead of a general election scheduled for 2029.
One scenario floated by Labour lawmakers would have Burnham offering Streeting a prominent cabinet position in exchange for Streeting declining to formally trigger a leadership race. One senior lawmaker noted that a likely three-month summer leadership campaign would only hurt the party, and that members of parliament would probably favor a swift and orderly resolution.
