NEW YORK (AP) — While Maine Democrats struggle to manage a deepening political crisis, Republicans working to preserve their U.S. Senate majority are feeling a wave of relief wash over them.
Throughout much of this year, GOP operatives had privately acknowledged the real possibility that they could lose control of the Senate. That concern is fading fast.
Although a lot can still change before November, Republicans have begun reshaping their national strategy to capitalize on a political landscape that has shifted dramatically in their favor — thanks largely to the mounting controversy surrounding Maine Democrat Graham Platner. Platner now faces a sexual assault allegation that even his closest allies have called credible.
Platner denies the accusation but is facing enormous pressure to drop out of the race. The list of potential candidates to replace him has done little to worry Republicans who are rallying behind incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, who is running for a sixth term this fall.
The extraordinary turmoil within Maine’s Democratic Party has flipped what many considered the party’s top Senate pickup opportunity into a chaotic situation where Democrats are divided and uncertain about who their nominee will be — just four months before Election Day.
“Obviously, expectations are that this certainly will be helpful overall,” said Joanna Rodriguez of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. She added that without Maine, “Democrats have no path to a majority.”
The numbers appear to back her up.
Democrats would need to flip four Senate seats to take control of the chamber for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s time in office.
Maine is the only 2026 Senate battleground where a Republican senator is up for reelection in a state that Democrat Kamala Harris carried in 2024. North Carolina — where Democrats have united behind popular former Gov. Roy Cooper — is likely the party’s next-best pickup chance. Democrats are also working to stay competitive in the Republican-leaning states of Iowa, Alaska, Ohio and Texas, while defending their own seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
Without a win in Maine, Democrats would need to hold every seat they currently have and capture four of five seats in states where Trump won by an average of more than 10 percentage points.
“I’m convinced Republicans are holding the Senate,” said New York-based Republican donor Eric Levine, who has hosted fundraising events for Collins and other at-risk GOP senators. He added that the situation in Maine “makes it easier.”
It’s difficult to overstate just how much attention Republicans have poured into protecting Collins, who is the last Republican senator representing any New England state.
During this election cycle alone, Republicans have already spent $108 million on her race — more than nearly every other Senate contest in the country, though just behind Texas’s record-setting Republican primary, according to data compiled by AdImpact.
And the party had been prepared to spend significantly more in Maine, according to Republican strategist Chris Hartline.
“Republicans were in a situation where we were going to have to go all in on Maine,” he said.
Hartline noted that Platner’s implosion doesn’t make Maine an automatic Republican win, but it does give the national party some “breathing room” to move money to other races.
On Wednesday, for instance, the Republican super PAC One Nation announced it would spend a combined $45 million across three Senate races in Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire. Maine was left off that list — even though One Nation has already put $23.5 million into the state, according to AdImpact.
That said, Republicans are not pulling all of their Maine funding in the near term.
Working under the assumption that Platner will exit the race within days, Republicans are preparing a negative advertising campaign aimed at quickly defining whoever emerges as Collins’ next opponent.
“The candidate we’re running against is largely undefined,” Rodriguez said. “So there will have to be spending and a campaign on behalf of Collins to be sure that that person is defined early.”
Collins, who had already been gearing up for a tough reelection fight, had nearly $10 million in her campaign account as of late May.
“Fundraising continues on at a strong clip and we are heartened to see support from Mainers and Americans across the nation continue to grow,” said Collins’ campaign spokesperson Blake Kernen. “Our cash position remains very strong.”
Maine Democratic Party leaders are rushing to put together a contingency plan for if and when Platner announces his withdrawal from the race.
Nearly all of his prominent supporters this week called on Platner to step aside, including Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders — who had previously stood by the oyster farmer even after reports surfaced about a tattoo recognized as a Nazi symbol, extramarital sexting, and controversial social media posts that would have derailed most political campaigns.
Everything shifted this week when a former girlfriend told reporters that Platner drunkenly entered her home and sexually assaulted her in 2021 — an allegation Platner has denied.
Under Maine law, Platner must voluntarily withdraw by 5 p.m. on July 13 in order for another candidate to take his place on the ballot. As of now, Platner has only said he is pausing his campaign.
If he does withdraw, Maine law gives the state Democratic Party the authority to select a replacement candidate — a decision that must be made by July 27, leaving just 99 days until Election Day.
“Democrats have taken their No. 1 pickup opportunity and completely fumbled it,” Rodriguez of the NRSC said. “This is the strongest Susan Collins has ever been.”
