WASHINGTON (AP) — Just weeks ahead of his scheduled Beijing trip, President Donald Trump took to social media to forecast that Chinese President Xi Jinping would “give me a big, fat hug when I get there.”
However, China’s substantial financial connections to Iran, combined with ongoing trade disputes and tariff concerns dating back to Trump’s previous presidency, may dampen the atmosphere during Trump’s Beijing visit this week. This comes despite the Republican president’s years of lavish praise for Xi, demonstrating his view of China’s leader as a formidable competitor deserving of his respect and admiration.
Given Trump’s dislike of lengthy flights and extended periods away from the White House or his Florida and New Jersey residences, he’s anticipated to remain in China for only portions of three days.
While ceremonial elements will be present, the magnificence isn’t anticipated to match Trump’s initial 2017 China visit, which Beijing characterized as a “state visit-plus.”
“Even before this whole conflagration with Iran, they weren’t going to go state visit-plus like last time, just because things are tense,” said Jonathan Czin, a former director for China at the National Security Council during the Biden administration.
During Trump’s previous presidential term visit, China provided an elaborate welcome featuring a military band and children with flags chanting “Welcome.”
Xi provided a Forbidden City tour, where Trump and first lady Melania Trump enjoyed a private dinner. Trump became the first foreign leader since the People’s Republic of China’s 1949 establishment to receive treatment once exclusively reserved for emperors.
The next day included another welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People with a military parade. A state banquet honored Trump, featuring video highlights from Xi’s prior Florida visit and footage of Trump’s granddaughter Arabella performing Chinese songs.
Beijing rarely provides such elaborate treatment for visiting foreign dignitaries. When British Prime Minister Keir Starmer toured the Forbidden City in January, Xi was absent and the location stayed open to tourists, forcing Starmer to navigate around sightseers.
Ali Wyne, senior U.S.-China research and advocacy adviser for the Washington nonprofit the Crisis Group, said the “Chinese delegation will likely do its utmost to ensure that Trump leaves Beijing believing that he has just concluded the most extraordinary state visit of his two presidencies.”
However, he noted that the “pomp and circumstance would serve a different role now than they did when he first visited Beijing” because “Xi has a much better understanding of Trump, and the administration’s own national security strategy and national defense strategy recognize China as a near-peer.”
Achievement expectations may be diminished this time, according to Czin, currently a Brookings Institution fellow. He anticipates the Chinese may withhold significant trade breakthroughs or other major concessions because they are “working backward from our midterm elections” with the belief that approaching Election Day will increase “the more leverage they are going to have.”
The GOP focuses on maintaining Congressional control, while polling indicates most Americans disapprove of Trump’s economic policies and believe the United States overreached in Iran. Nevertheless, the White House contends that Trump’s previous tough stance with Beijing regarding tariffs — later overturned by the Supreme Court — positions the U.S. favorably.
“President Trump cares about results, not symbols,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said. “But even still, the president has a great relationship with President Xi, and the upcoming summit in Beijing will be both symbolically and substantively significant.”
Trump may encounter China’s leader four times within eight months.
Following his Beijing visit, Trump plans to welcome Xi at the White House. Trump might also participate in November’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Shenzhen, China. Xi could attend the subsequent month’s Group of 20 summit at Trump’s Doral, Florida resort.
Czin observed that Xi also dislikes travel, suggesting not all planned meetings may occur. He noted China’s leader doesn’t engage in “personal connections” that Trump enjoys, pointing to Xi’s January military purge that removed officials with longstanding family ties.
Wyne, however, said Xi “appreciates that he is unlikely to deal with another U.S. president who admires him as greatly and embraces as narrow a view of strategic competition.”
This means Xi may “attempt to pocket as many economic and security concessions from Trump as possible,” Wyne said.
Trump told The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board in 2024 that Xi “was actually a really good … I don’t want to say ‘friend.’ I don’t want to act foolish. ‘He was my friend.’ But I got along with him great.”
Trump even indicated that military intervention might be unnecessary to prevent Chinese forces from threatening Taiwan, simply because China’s leader “respects me,” despite recent discussions about potentially providing arms to Taiwan.
Trump has maintained praise for the bilateral relationship since returning to the White House, even after his Beijing visit was rescheduled from March due to early Iran war developments.
He unsuccessfully encouraged China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian forces blocked it, disrupting global economies. However, China leveraged its position as Iran’s largest oil customer to encourage Iran toward what remains a fragile ceasefire.
Beijing maintains strong economic relationships with Tehran, and the conflict could damage its economy, which was already expected to experience slower growth. If China successfully helps establish lasting peace, this might improve its position in trade negotiations with the Trump administration.
During his 2017 visit, Trump announced $250 billion in non-binding trade agreements, some of which never materialized. A 2020 round of trade deals worth $200 billion largely failed to materialize before Trump’s first term concluded.
More recently, Trump’s announcement of significant global tariffs last year prompted China to halt U.S. soybean purchases and restrict rare earth mineral exports essential for American manufacturing.
Tensions have somewhat decreased since the U.S. achieved a trade truce last fall limiting tariffs on both sides. The administration continues prioritizing reduction of the U.S. trade deficit with China while encouraging bilateral trade.
“I expect great stability in the relationship,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. “But that doesn’t mean our trade deficit can’t continue dropping.”
Kelly, the White House spokeswoman, said Trump “doesn’t travel anywhere without bringing deliverables home to our country.”
“Americans can expect the president to deliver more good deals for the United States while in China,” she said.
