WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump appears to be charting a course out of an unpopular war with Iran after approving a peace framework that could ease the global energy crisis — but experts warn the agreement comes with significant risks and leaves several of his original war goals unfulfilled.
More than three months after the United States launched military strikes against the Islamic Republic, Trump on Sunday endorsed a “memorandum of understanding” that represents the biggest step forward in peace negotiations to date. A central element of the deal is Iran’s commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global shipping lane whose closure has sent energy prices soaring and contributed to higher gasoline costs for American consumers.
However, the Pakistani-brokered agreement — whose full text has not yet been made public — reportedly requires major concessions from the United States, most notably the postponement of any talks aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, which Trump had identified as a primary reason for going to war.
Trump announced the deal in a social media post on his 80th birthday, writing: “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!” Iran subsequently confirmed the agreement, which is scheduled to be formally signed on Friday, though many critical details remain unresolved.
The two countries have offered differing interpretations of the framework, which is designed to extend the existing ceasefire for 60 days while negotiators work toward a permanent end to a conflict that has sent shockwaves through global energy markets. The war has killed thousands of people, drained U.S. military resources, and weighed on Trump’s approval ratings ahead of November’s midterm elections, in which his Republican Party is fighting to hold onto control of Congress.
Trump, who ran for a second term on pledges to steer clear of foreign wars and prioritize the American economy, has portrayed the outcome as a decisive U.S. win — even as Iranian officials have made similar boasts of their own.
Yet most analysts say Trump — who at one point called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” — has been unable to achieve many of the objectives he set for the conflict. Iran’s religious government, which Trump encouraged Iranians to topple at the start of the war, remains largely in place. Leaders who stepped in after top officials were killed in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes are reportedly even more hardline than their predecessors.
Earlier demands that Iran shut down its ballistic missile program and cut ties with regional proxy forces also went unmet. Still, a U.S. official told reporters that the preliminary agreement achieves Trump’s core objectives.
The fate of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium also remains uncertain. Trump posted on Saturday that the U.S. would retrieve the material and “downblend and destroy it,” but offered no timeline. An Iranian official said only that Iran had agreed to “dilute” the stockpile itself, with no mechanism yet in place.
Victoria Taylor, a former deputy assistant secretary of state now with the Atlantic Council think tank, offered a measured assessment of the outcome: “This deal is likely the best possible outcome to avert further conflict, but it is no better than what could have been achieved had the United States pursued diplomacy rather than war in the first place.”
Questions also remain about whether the final agreement will represent an improvement over the 2015 nuclear deal that former President Barack Obama negotiated with Iran — and which Trump walked away from in 2018 during his first term in office.
U.S. officials have said any release of frozen Iranian funds or loosening of sanctions will be done gradually and only if Tehran meets specific requirements. Iran, however, has signaled it expects some financial relief upfront — a dynamic that could expose Trump to the same criticism he directed at Obama for allegedly giving Iran economic breathing room.
Trump and his team have highlighted Iran’s stated commitment to never develop a nuclear weapon as a key achievement. But Iran had long maintained such a position, citing a religious decree issued by former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — who was killed in an airstrike at the war’s outset — that prohibited building a bomb.
While the agreement calls for Iran to lift restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipping and for the U.S. to end its naval blockade of Iranian ports, Tehran has insisted it must retain a role in managing the waterway — a role it did not hold before the war began. Reopening the strait would essentially restore conditions to what they were before the conflict started.
Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington cautioned against viewing the strait’s reopening as a lasting solution: “Iran has demonstrated that even in a starkly weakened state, it can shut the Strait of Hormuz at will. That’s not going away.”
The war has claimed thousands of lives, primarily in Iran and Lebanon, where fighting between Israel and Iran-aligned Hezbollah militants was reignited. Thirteen U.S. service members have also been killed. The financial cost to the U.S. military has reached tens of billions of dollars, and weapons stockpiles have been significantly depleted. The conflict has also strained relations with European allies, who were not consulted before Trump launched the war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who built a close partnership with Trump during the conflict, has said Israel will not be party to the memorandum of understanding. The two leaders clashed on Sunday over Israel’s ongoing military operations in Lebanon. Meanwhile, U.S. Gulf allies — who were themselves targeted by Iranian missile and drone attacks — have pushed for a peaceful resolution but now face the reality of a weakened Iran that still retains enough military capability to pose a threat.
