Tropical Storm Bertha has come ashore along the northern Gulf Coast and is now positioned over far eastern Texas, according to a forecast discussion issued Thursday afternoon by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The storm has been tracking along the northern Gulf Coast for much of the day but has become increasingly disorganized. Forecasters note that Bertha is highly asymmetric, with nearly all of its deep storm activity concentrated in its southwest quadrant — the portion now pushing inland over Texas.
A recent satellite pass detected a drop in the storm’s maximum winds, and that data — combined with surface observations and a weakened appearance in satellite imagery — led forecasters to lower the estimated wind speed to 35 knots, or about 40 miles per hour.
The storm’s poor organization is making it difficult to pinpoint its exact center of circulation. Forecasters say Bertha may actually be stretching out and opening into a weather trough. The best estimate of its movement is west-northwestward at about 11 knots, though computer models suggest the center could briefly reorganize to the south over the next several hours.
Regardless of how the storm’s structure evolves, the National Hurricane Center expects Bertha to track across eastern Texas on Thursday evening and fully dissipate either overnight or by Friday.
Forecasters highlighted three key concerns heading into the evening hours:
Tropical storm conditions are still expected across portions of the warning area in Texas and Louisiana through Thursday evening. Isolated flash flooding remains possible along the Texas Gulf Coast and into South Texas tonight. Coastal flooding along the northern Gulf Coast is expected to gradually taper off.
The official forecast shows the storm’s maximum winds dropping to 25 knots — about 30 miles per hour — by early Friday morning, at which point it will be classified as a post-tropical inland system. By Friday afternoon, Bertha is expected to be fully dissipated. The forecast was prepared by forecasters Cangialosi and R. Zelinsky at the National Hurricane Center.
