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Tag: heavy rain

Periods of Rain Expected Across Delmarva Through the Weekend

Residents across the Delmarva Peninsula should prepare for several rounds of rain as a series of weather systems move through the region from late Friday into early Sunday. While no significant flooding or severe weather is expected, the stretch will bring generally wet and mild conditions.

The first system arrives late Friday as a weakening cold front moves into the Mid-Atlantic. This front is tied to an area of low pressure lifting north from the Great Lakes toward Quebec. Rain is expected to develop Friday afternoon and continue into Friday night. As the front weakens and gradually dissipates over the region, temperatures are not expected to drop noticeably, with little to no cold air pushing in behind it.

A second, more impactful system follows on Saturday. A deepening upper-level trough moving south from Canada into the Great Lakes will help spawn a new surface low over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This low will track northeast, pushing a warm front northward across Delmarva on Saturday. As the warm front lifts through the region, rain coverage will increase and milder air will overspread the peninsula.

Temperatures on Saturday may behave unusually, with some locations seeing their highest readings later in the day or even during the evening hours as warmer air moves in. Overnight temperatures may hold steady or even rise slightly in some areas. Overall, Saturday is expected to be a warm and wet day, with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to the low 60s.

Heavier rain is expected to move in later Saturday as an initial cold front crosses the region. While a brief rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out due to some elevated instability in the atmosphere, no severe weather is anticipated. Showers may linger Saturday night until a secondary cold front moves through on Sunday morning. Behind that front, winds will increase, but the chance of wind gusts reaching advisory levels remains low.

There is higher confidence that Delmarva will see periods of rain from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning, though exact rainfall totals remain uncertain. Most guidance suggests at least a half inch of rain, with some models indicating localized totals between 1.5 and 2 inches. The probability of receiving one inch or more of rain is around 40 to 60 percent, while the chance of exceeding two inches is low.

Rainfall is expected to fall over a 36 to 48 hour period with breaks between systems, reducing the risk of flooding. With mild temperatures in place leading into the weekend, any remaining ice in streams or rivers should have already melted, allowing water to drain efficiently. Confidence in rainfall totals and timing is expected to improve as the weekend approaches.

January 8, 2026
Multiple Rounds of Rain Expected Across Delmarva This Weekend

The Delmarva region is expected to see several rounds of rain as a series of weather systems move through the area from late Friday into Sunday morning. While the rain will be spread out over time, confidence is high that most locations will see wet conditions at some point during the weekend.

The first round of rain arrives late Friday into Friday night as a weakening cold front crosses the region. This front is associated with an area of low pressure moving from the Great Lakes toward eastern Canada. Because the front is weakening as it approaches Delmarva, it is not expected to bring much of a temperature drop or colder air. Rain during this period should generally be light to moderate.

A stronger system moves in on Saturday as a slow moving trough dives south from Canada into the Great Lakes. This will help develop a new area of low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley that tracks northeast toward the Mid Atlantic. A warm front is expected to lift through Delmarva Saturday morning, placing the region in a warmer and more humid air mass. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the 60s, which is mild for this time of year, though still a few degrees shy of daily records.

Heavier rain is expected later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front moves through the region. There may be enough instability in the atmosphere for a rumble of thunder, but severe weather is not expected. After the initial front moves offshore Saturday night, scattered showers may linger until a secondary cold front passes through on Sunday morning.

Once the secondary front clears the area, winds will increase, but the chance of wind gusts reaching advisory levels remains low. Overall, rainfall will be spread out over a 36 to 48 hour period with breaks between rounds.

Forecast confidence is high that rain will occur, but exact rainfall totals remain uncertain. Most guidance suggests at least a half inch of rain, with some models indicating localized totals between 1.5 and 2 inches. The probability of receiving one inch or more of rain sits around 30 to 50 percent, while the chance of exceeding two inches is low.

Despite the potential for moderate rainfall, flooding concerns remain minimal. The rain will fall gradually rather than all at once, and recent mild temperatures should have eliminated any lingering ice in creeks or rivers, allowing water to drain efficiently.

More confidence in rainfall totals is expected as the weekend approaches, but residents across Delmarva should be prepared for several periods of rain from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning.

January 7, 2026
Heavy Rains, Thunder, And High Winds On The Way Tonight Through Friday
A strong cold front is expected to move through the region later this evening, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, with the potential for a few embedded thunderstorms. Ahead of the front, a surge of unseasonably warm air continues to advance up the East Coast, allowing afternoon temperatures to rise into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.
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...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
  expected Thursday night through Friday morning. Winds turn to the
  northwest behind a strong cold front Friday afternoon. There may
  be a lull in the strongest wind gusts around midday Friday before
  the cold front passes through the region. Wind gusts in the wake
  of the front up to 50 MPH are possible.

* WHERE...In Delaware, Delaware Beaches County. In New Jersey,
  Eastern Monmouth, Western Monmouth, Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal
  Cape May, Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Ocean, and
  Southeastern Burlington Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
```
As the frontal boundary approaches, winds will strengthen significantly, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible across portions of New England and the Mid-Atlantic. A Wind Advisory is in effect for several areas. Rainfall totals are currently forecast to range between 0.50 and 1.50 inches, which will be beneficial in helping to alleviate ongoing drought conditions across much of the eastern United States.

The sharp temperature gradient associated with the frontal passage may provide enough atmospheric instability to support a narrow line of embedded thunderstorms. Within this line, a strong low-level jet could allow isolated stronger wind gusts to mix down to the surface. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, localized areas may experience brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Behind the front, gusty conditions will persist through Friday, with winds continuing to gust between 40 and 50 mph at times. Skies will gradually clear as cooler air filters into the region, bringing a return to sunshine and more seasonable temperatures.
December 18, 2025
Major Coastal Storm Friday-Saturday

High Res Window Model Showing Major Coastal Low Over Delmarva

We have been talking about this scenario throughout the week about a major storm system will be developing in the Eastern half of the nation. An area of low pressure will be rapidly developing from the Gulf States and runs parallel through the Mid-Atlantic states during the morning hours on Saturday.

Large Trough In the Eastern US

Phasing of the Northern Jet and the Sub-Tropical Jet will set the stages of a potential Bomb Cyclone (air pressure that drops more than 24mb’s in 24 hours) to develop. By the time this storm system moves north of New England we could be looking at some serious low pressures by Greenland.

Low Location Will Be Key

Depending on the placement of this area of low pressure will determine if we are in the path of the powerful low level Jetstream to setup. The blend solution has the area of low pressure going right over the Delmarva region keeping those powerful winds off of our coasts. But if the low positions further west, this will allow for a short term duration of strong winds exceeding 50 mph at times.

Low Level Jetstream 90-100kts offshore

To add more dynamics to the mix, cold air will be crashing on the northwest side of the storm which we may see a burst of snow on the backside during the evening hours. Any snow that does fall will have a extremely difficult time accumulating here on the shore. It’s a matter of how quickly can those temperatures crash on that backside of the storm. And the position of the low. If we have a further east solution like the NAM3km, then our chances are high but I have that one as my outlier as of now. I’m leaning more with the HRW-ARW with the further west solution overall.

Model Solutions Regarding The Backside Snow Threat

March 10, 2022
More Rain On The Way For Wednesday | Some Can Be Heavy At Times.

Snap Shot Of The Morning On Wednesday

This is going to be the week for heavy rain that is for sure here on Delmarva. Once again we are in the sights of another storm system coming in from the south during the morning hours of Wednesday. An area of low pressure will be developing along the southern jet stream and moving right over top of the Mid-Atlantic States. Areas in PA that saw 70 degree temperatures yesterday will now be seeing some accumulating snowfall.

Although here on the shore we will see all rain, we will get some beneficial amounts to say the least. Latest high resolution guidance showing up to a half inch of precipitation for areas north of Dover. Areas in Central Delmarva up to about an inch of rainfall. And the southern tip of the shore will likely see the greatest amounts between 1- 1.50″ before tapering off Wednesday Afternoon.

March 8, 2022
High Wind Event With Coastal Flooding Concerns Sunday Night
Not only we have to deal with some heavy rainfall, a little bit of snow for the northern areas of Delmarva and the Maryland Western Shore. There’s an event that is sleeping under the radar that has my full attention. When that low starts dropping below 990mb, that low level jet stream is very strong being pulled into this surface low.

70-80kt Winds at 850mb ( Low Level Jet)

Anytime I start seeing winds at 5000ft getting over 60kts, I get a bit uneasy in the damaging wind department. This is a long fetch stream of onshore winds we are talking about from the Gulf Stream. There is going to be a lot of wind energy pushing on the east side of this low. And it’s all onshore flow too. There’s more issues with this as well.
NAM and GFS Surface Wind Gusts Forecast
Winds at the surface are showing widespread wind gusts of 40-60 mph from the east and southeast. Another problem surfaces as well. We have a high tide cycle that’s expected during the evening hours Sunday Night. To add more salt in the wound, this weekend is a full moon as well. So take 40-60mph surface winds, plus onshore flow, plus a high tide cycle, and a full moon, it’s not going to be a fun time for a coastal locations this weekend. Strongest winds appear to be in a window from 8pm Sunday until 4am Monday.

Already a few tidal forecast in the region showing Moderate Flood Stage forecasts like this one in Crisfield. So we really got to watch our coastal regions Sunday night for flooding concerns.
January 14, 2022
Big Storm On The Way Sun-Mon / Snow Lovers Won’t Be Happy With This One
Surface Pressure Forecast

We gave out two different solution tracks in yesterday’s update but now we have a agreement on which one it would be. If you guessed number 1? You are right (sort of). For reference to yesterday’s post –> https://tvdelmarva.com/storm-signal-jan-16-17th-winter-storm-looming/

Many models have trended with a storm system riding up the Eastern Seaboard thanks to the added ingest from an aircraft last night sampling the atmosphere on the West Coast. This created a big shift in the over track and unfortunately for snow lovers, not in a way that favors Delmarva.
GFS timeframe showing Snow/Mix changing to rain across the region
With a low pressure track right over the Peninsula, We will start out with a snow/sleet mix and eventually all locations will be changing over to rain. Delmarva will see that transition fairly quickly but those across the bay on the Maryland Western Shore. They are looking to see a longer duration in the snow & sleet part of the storm thanks to cold air damming along the Appalachian mountains. Eventually they will also change over to rain.
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS all following suite to the blend
With agreement from the ECMWF, CMC, and the GFS Ensembles following the same path, it’s looking that areas of Delmarva will be going from a extremely cold Saturday to a very chilly rain on Sunday. There is still several days away for this storm to be in the region but its not very often / likely these will trend eastward to favor our snow lovers here on the shore.
January 12, 2022