Storm Signal Jan 16-17th / Winter Storm Looming?

GFS Model Showing Major Snowstorm

Like I was mentioning yesterday, we are heading into a fairly volatile pattern to finish out the month of January. With the Polar vortex anchoring around the Hudson Bay, this will allow a persistent long wave trough across the Eastern half of the nation. And boy these long range models are showing a train of them to say the least. As of now there is no one solution in this matter. In fact there is two scenarios in which this system will go.

Vorticity Forecast

First off, This piece of energy will be associated with the northern stream jet-stream coming down from Canada. Which normally our coastal storms like to be coming from the sub-tropical jets stream from the south. But being this is diving deep down into the Gulf States, Its going to pay the southern stream a visit.

Here’s the two scenarios we are looking at right now.

ECMWF showing a suppressed solution

Here’s the two possible outcomes I am seeing so far. All depends on two factors, one with the energy diving southward and becomes very suppressed by a strong area of high pressure over the Northeastern United States (Option 1). This will keep the storm very far south delivering some light snow to areas of the deep south. And a much weaker solution.

GFS showing a major storm with scenario 2

Option two would be a large snowstorm to start back over towards Missouri, plowing for the deep south and then intensify rapidly as a sub 980mb low off of our coasts. The high pressure system suppress the storm to the south and a very steep ridge over the western US allowing this piece of energy to become “negative tilted”.

Both options are possible at this time, we just need to see more consistency in either direction to know that this is a false alarm or we got another big storm on our hands down the road.

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