Oil-producing nations within the OPEC+ alliance are preparing to approve another modest increase in production quotas on Sunday, according to industry sources, though the boost will have little real-world impact while the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to block Gulf shipping lanes.
Industry insiders report that seven OPEC+ nations have reached preliminary agreement to boost their collective oil production targets by approximately 188,000 barrels daily starting in June. This marks the third straight month of planned increases.
The decision signals the coalition’s readiness to expand supply once hostilities end, sources indicate. The group is also moving forward with production plans despite the United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC+ earlier this week.
Sunday’s meeting includes representatives from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. While OPEC+ now consists of 21 member nations including Iran following the UAE’s departure, only these seven countries plus the UAE have historically participated in monthly production planning.
The conflict that erupted February 28 and subsequent blockade of the Hormuz shipping channel have severely limited exports from key OPEC+ producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. These nations were previously the only group members with capacity to meaningfully increase output.
Industry executives and global oil traders say any production increase will remain mostly symbolic until Hormuz shipping resumes, with several weeks or months needed afterward for supply chains to normalize.
The supply disruption has driven oil prices to four-year peaks above $125 per barrel this week, with analysts warning of potential jet fuel shortages within one to two months and rising global inflation pressures.
OPEC data from last month shows combined crude output from all member nations averaged 35.06 million barrels daily in March, representing a decline of 7.70 million barrels from February levels. Iraq and Saudi Arabia experienced the steepest production drops due to export constraints.
