The NFL draft’s opening round presents an intriguing imbalance: half a dozen franchises will sit out the first round entirely, while six others possess double the usual selection power.
Trading activity could heat up significantly as a result.
First-round pick trades have fluctuated dramatically in recent years, with 60 such deals occurring over the past five seasons. The 2022 draft saw 18 first-round selections change hands, while last year’s six trades tied the lowest total since 1985.
The Bengals, Packers, Jaguars, Falcons, Colts and Broncos will watch Thursday’s first round from the sidelines, having previously dealt their selections. Meanwhile, the Giants, Jets, Dolphins, Cowboys, Browns and Chiefs each hold two first-round picks.
Several major trades have already shaped this year’s landscape. Cincinnati sent the 10th overall selection to New York for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence on Saturday, giving the Giants picks at fifth and tenth overall. Green Bay lacks a first-rounder due to last August’s blockbuster deal for Micah Parsons. Jacksonville traded away its 2026 first-round pick to Cleveland during last year’s draft to secure Travis Hunter with the second overall selection.
Atlanta surrendered this year’s first-round pick to Los Angeles last draft night to select edge rusher James Pearce Jr. at 26th overall. Indianapolis dealt its first-rounder to New York for Sauce Gardner. Denver sent the 30th pick to Miami in exchange for Jaylen Waddle.
Several franchises appear positioned to make moves Thursday evening:
Philadelphia’s general manager Howie Roseman has established himself as one of the league’s most aggressive executives. The Eagles hold the 23rd selection and have a recent history of draft-day maneuvering. They traded up from 10th to ninth in 2023 for defensive tackle Jalen Carter, moved from 15th to 13th in 2022 for Jordan Davis, and jumped from 12th to 10th in 2021 to select DeVonta Smith. Roseman also engineered moves in 2019 and 2016, while trading out of the first round entirely in 2018.
“I think we go into this draft being very comfortable with having 23 guys we’re ready to take. We’re there ready and prepared for that,” Roseman said. “If something happens where somebody who’s higher on our board than 23rd is available, we’ll be ready for that. If there’s an opportunity that we think makes sense to move up based on the value of that player, we’ll move up. If we have multiple guys at our spot and there’s a trade that makes sense to move back, we’ll move back.”
One Eagles trade scenario generating offseason speculation isn’t expected to materialize this week. A.J. Brown appears headed elsewhere, with New England emerging as the frontrunner to acquire the star receiver and reunite him with coach Mike Vrabel. Los Angeles also pursued Brown earlier this offseason. Philadelphia could spread Brown’s $40 million salary cap impact across two seasons by waiting until June 1 for any deal.
Tampa Bay holds the 15th selection but might find their preferred targets unavailable. The Buccaneers need pass-rushing help and could benefit from additional draft capital, as they currently possess just one pick per round. Several potential edge rushers projected for the 16-25 range could prompt Tampa Bay to trade backward while accumulating premium selections.
“In a lot of scenarios that we’re working through, yeah,” GM Jason Licht said regarding trading down. “You have a group of players that you say, ‘No matter what, if this player’s there, we’re taking (them).’ If there’s a group of three, then maybe you go back one or two to make sure that you ensure you get one of your three, but the part of that that makes it difficult is you’ve got to find a trade partner. It’s not as easy as it sounds. Sometimes teams just don’t want to move up. They don’t want to give up picks, and I understand why.”
Dallas possesses selections at 12th and 20th overall, with owner Jerry Jones suggesting an aggressive approach. However, trading down from one position to accumulate additional picks might better serve the Cowboys’ defensive needs across multiple areas.
Dallas lacks a second-round pick after sending it to New York for defensive tackle Quinnen Williams before the trade deadline. Moving down from the 20th spot while adding a second-rounder plus other selections represents one possible strategy.
New York holds four selections among the top 44 picks, including second and 16th overall in the first round. They also possess three 2027 first-round picks.
Should the Jets target a specific player—perhaps an elite receiver—they have sufficient draft assets to move up from 16th overall. They can choose among available edge rushers at second overall after quarterback Fernando Mendoza goes first to Las Vegas.
Miami enters with picks at 11th and 30th overall while facing numerous roster needs. The Dolphins are rebuilding comprehensively, and trading one first-round selection for multiple picks could help restock their talent base.
