A newly released report from the independent Council on Criminal Justice reveals that homicides across 30 American cities have dropped 18% in 2026 compared to the same stretch of 2025 — a reduction that amounts to roughly 215 fewer killings so far this year.
If that trajectory holds through the end of the year, the United States could see its lowest annual homicide rate in more than a century, according to the report released Thursday.
Researchers tracked 13 different crime categories and found that nine of them declined, including carjackings, residential burglaries, and aggravated assaults. However, shoplifting, domestic violence, sexual assaults, and drug offenses all saw modest increases over the same period.
Experts say the overall improvement is surpassing expectations and has already pushed crime rates below the levels seen before 2020 — before the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a historic spike in violence.
With midterm elections approaching, both Democrats and Republicans have been eager to take credit for the positive numbers. But the report’s findings span cities led by politicians from across the political spectrum, suggesting no single party or policy deserves sole credit.
Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice — a nonpartisan criminal justice research organization — said the widespread nature of the decline points to broader national forces at work rather than any one local strategy.
“Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map in cities with different political leadership, different housing and economic conditions, different policing and prosecution and violence reduction strategies and different levels of federal enforcement activity,” Gelb said.
The council gathers its data from police departments and other law enforcement agencies. Some crime categories include figures from as many as 36 cities, while others draw from fewer due to reporting gaps or varying definitions of specific offenses.
Gelb also highlighted a notable shift in how deadly violent crimes are: the share of serious violent crimes that result in death fell by 23%, meaning more victims are surviving violent encounters.
Property crimes also showed improvement in many areas. Residential burglaries fell 13% year over year and are down a dramatic 50% compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Shoplifting was an exception, rising 5%. Drug offenses ticked up slightly but remain below pre-pandemic numbers.
Not every city is sharing in the good news. About one-third of the 30 cities studied actually recorded more homicides in the first half of 2026 than in the same period of 2025. Norfolk, Virginia, saw a 64% increase in killings, while San Francisco recorded a 55% jump. Looking at longer-term trends, only Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis had higher homicide numbers in 2026 than in the same period back in 2019.
John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at the National Opinion Research Center from the University of Chicago, noted that politicians on both sides are offering their own explanations. He said conservatives aligned with President Donald Trump point to stricter immigration enforcement and National Guard deployments in cities like Los Angeles and Memphis, while liberal politicians credit former Democratic President Joe Biden’s public safety legislation, which expanded background checks on gun purchases.
But Roman said the most convincing explanations go beyond any single administration. He pointed to factors such as declining drug use — which reduces demand from illegal markets often tied to violence — and a wave of federal pandemic relief funding that flowed to local communities and paid for social programs.
Those programs, Roman said, often funded positions like teachers and social workers who work directly with “young people who are the highest risk of violence and victimization.”
Both Gelb and Roman agreed there is no single explanation for the decline, but Gelb said the results deserve both study and celebration.
“This is one of the most significant public safety developments in decades. It means lives are being saved, families are spared trauma and communities are regaining stability,” Gelb said.
