WASHINGTON — Independent voters have become more dissatisfied with President Trump throughout his second term, according to fresh polling data from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, with the steepest decline among those lacking college education.
Research findings indicate that approximately half of independents without college degrees viewed Trump favorably around the 2024 election, but that number plummeted to roughly 25% by this spring. This dramatic shift has eliminated the significant education divide that previously existed among independent voters regarding their views of the president.
The research compiled data from nearly two dozen AP-NORC surveys spanning July 2024 through April 2026, providing insight into how Trump’s support evolved across multiple timeframes, including the final six months of 2024, his first 100 days back in office, summer 2025 when the Big Beautiful Bill became law, last fall’s government shutdown, and the start of the Iran conflict.
The data reveals consistent erosion of support among independents during Trump’s current presidency. His standing has also weakened among smaller but significant voter groups that had moved in his direction during the 2024 race, including Black and Hispanic independents.
With more Americans identifying as independents than ever before, and this group having shifted toward Trump in 2024, any loss of their support could create challenges for Trump and Republicans as midterm elections approach, which typically serve as a referendum on the party in power.
Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC who helped write the analysis, observed that while Democratic and Republican opinions of Trump have remained relatively unchanged during his second presidency, independent viewpoints continue to shift. “Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support,” he said.
Trump’s White House comeback was driven partly by independent voters who viewed him as superior on crucial matters like economic policy. However, the new research examining Trump’s favorability and job approval numbers shows their attitudes deteriorated rapidly once he assumed office.
Non-college-educated independents held significantly more favorable opinions of Trump than their college-educated counterparts during and immediately following the 2024 election, but this pattern reversed during his first months in office. Positive assessments among independents without degrees dropped from 48% before his return to power to 31% during his initial 100 days, then fell further to approximately 25% during the government shutdown and early 2026.
College-educated independents showed less dramatic change, with only about 30% viewing Trump positively before his return to office, making their decline to roughly 25% less striking.
“The decline among no-college independents was steeper and it was greater than the slight decline in college independents,” said Sean Collins, a research associate at NORC who co-authored the analysis. “That was surprising, especially given, when you think of Trump’s coalitions, those without college degrees is usually one of the ones that that stands out.”
Americans lacking college degrees have traditionally formed a core component of Trump’s political base. However, Trump’s 2024 victory also came from expanding support among typically Democratic-leaning demographics, including Hispanic voters.
Roughly 42% of independent voters backed Trump in 2024, an increase from 37% in the 2020 race. According to AP VoteCast, independents without college degrees showed slightly higher preference for Trump over former Vice President Kamala Harris, while Hispanic independents were roughly evenly divided.
Current circumstances appear far less favorable for the president.
Nearly 46% of Hispanic independents viewed Trump positively in polling conducted around the presidential election. However, his approval among this demographic fell sharply during his second term, dropping to just 15% during last fall’s government shutdown before recovering to about 25% this spring.
Younger independents have also grown less supportive of the president, while those aged 60 and above have remained relatively steady. Additional AP-NORC polling has shown Trump losing support among younger Republicans due to inflation worries and increasing discontent among Hispanic Americans.
“The gains Trump appeared to make during the election, I don’t know if they’re sticking around. He’s experienced some significant shifts among those people,” Torres said. “From our research, they don’t appear to be permanent gains.”
Survey data suggests economic concerns drive much of Americans’ dissatisfaction with Trump, including among independents.
About half of independents who voted for Trump in 2024 identified inflation as their primary voting consideration, according to AP VoteCast, with most expressing serious concerns about food and gas costs.
More than a year into Trump’s second presidency, inflation continues at elevated levels, driven by gas prices that remain high due to the ongoing Iran conflict. An April AP-NORC survey found roughly 30% of independents were “extremely” or “very” worried about affording groceries recently, with similar numbers concerned about gas expenses.
The analysis determined that Americans’ economic perceptions typically mirror their presidential assessments. Those with negative views of the nation’s economy generally held unfavorable opinions of Trump, with approximately 80% of independents describing the U.S. economy as poor this spring.
May’s most recent AP-NORC polling showed only about 30% of independents approve of Trump’s economic performance, consistent with similar numbers from early in his second term. The April survey found just 12% of independents approved of his handling of living costs.
The AP-NORC analysis examined responses from 4,836 independents across 21 surveys, organized into five time periods before and during President Trump’s second term. Independents were defined as respondents who did not identify with or lean toward either major political party.
