SAO PAULO, March 25 – A new survey from AtlasIntel and Bloomberg reveals that Brazil’s current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro would be locked in a statistical dead heat if they faced off in the country’s next presidential election. The Wednesday poll results show Bolsonaro holding just a one-point advantage over the incumbent.
In hypothetical first-round voting scenarios, the leftist Lula consistently captured around 46% support across five different matchup simulations. His right-wing opponent Flavio Bolsonaro showed strength ranging from 36% to 42% across four separate scenarios. These numbers represent gains for Bolsonaro compared to February polling, when he registered between 33% and 40% while Lula held steady at 43% to 47%.
The runoff simulation presents an even tighter contest, with Flavio Bolsonaro edging ahead at 47.6% compared to Lula’s 46.6%. However, this narrow margin falls completely within the survey’s one percentage point error range, making it essentially a tie. February’s polling had shown the two candidates in a virtual dead heat as well.
Financial markets have been closely monitoring these electoral polls ever since imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son Flavio in December, causing Brazil’s currency and stock markets to decline. The 80-year-old Lula, who successfully defeated the elder Bolsonaro in 2022, is positioning himself for what would be his fourth non-consecutive presidential term.
Brazil’s electoral system requires a candidate to secure more than 50% of valid votes to avoid a runoff election. Since 2002, every presidential race has required this second round of voting between the top two finishers. The AtlasIntel poll gathered responses from 5,028 Brazilian voters between March 18 and March 23, with results carrying a one percentage point margin of error.
