The National Basketball Association is exploring three different strategies to discourage franchises from deliberately losing games to secure better draft positions, according to two sources familiar with the discussions who spoke to The Associated Press on Friday.
These strategies — which remain preliminary concepts rather than finalized proposals — were shared with the league’s ownership group by NBA leadership earlier this week, the sources indicated.
Both individuals requested anonymity since the league has not made these details public.
Commissioner Adam Silver announced Wednesday his intention to hold a special ownership meeting in May for voting on lottery modifications, promising the league would address the tanking problem. One source told the AP that these concepts will likely undergo changes or refinements in coming weeks, with additional ideas potentially being presented to owners. The league’s general managers have also been contributing suggestions for potential modifications.
ESPN initially reported that these concepts were shared with team governors.
“I will say again, as I’ve said this before, this is not a new issue in this league,” Silver stated this week. “You can go back to the ’60s, when coin tosses were used to determine who got the first pick, then in the ’80s, when a draft lottery was created. That lottery has been modified four times since then. Does not seem to be operating optimally where we are now.”
Whatever modifications are ultimately approved will not take effect for this year’s lottery, scheduled for May.
Currently, the 14 franchises missing the NBA playoffs enter the lottery, where a four-number ping-pong ball combination determines the top four draft positions.
Under present rules, the three worst-performing teams each hold 14% odds for the top selection — with none of the five worst teams able to drop below eighth position in the lottery. The remaining 11 teams see their No. 1 pick chances decrease gradually, ranging from 12.5% for the fourth-worst team down to 0.7% for the 14th-worst team.
“Incentives need to be fixed,” Silver declared. “We will fix them. I’m looking forward to that.”
One proposed concept would include all 18 non-playoff teams plus the eight play-in tournament participants in the lottery. The bottom 10 franchises would each receive 8% lottery odds, with decreasing percentages from there.
Under this scenario, even the 18th-worst team — a playoff qualifier — could potentially win the lottery with 1% odds.
The WNBA determines lottery positioning based on two-season performance rather than single-season results. The NBA is considering a similar approach.
However, the NBA version would also establish a minimum win threshold — currently proposed at 25 victories per season. This means a team winning 31 games across two seasons would have identical No. 1 pick odds as a franchise earning exactly 50 wins over the same period. This floor aims to eliminate incentives for teams to lose every possible game.
A third concept under consideration would give the five worst teams equal 11% odds for the top pick — replacing the current system where three teams hold 14% chances.
This model would include certain pick protections to prevent the worst-performing teams from falling too far in draft order.
