LAS VEGAS — When the NCAA Tournament bracket was unveiled, the top-seeded teams once again established themselves as clear frontrunners, mirroring last season’s pattern where all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four.
The four No. 1 seeds this year — Duke, Arizona, Michigan, and reigning national champion Florida — hold the best championship odds at BetMGM Sportsbook according to early betting lines.
WagerTalk/Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall believes a few other programs could potentially crash the top seeds’ party in Indianapolis.
“I don’t think we’ll see all of them (No. 1 seeds) in the Final Four,” Marshall said. “Maybe somebody sneaks through on the three-line. I’d watch Virginia possibly. They’ve got a pretty good potential road in their region. That’s Michigan’s region. I think Michigan is beatable now.”
However, Marshall noted this year’s tournament landscape resembles last season’s, where only a handful of programs possess legitimate championship potential.
The selection committee’s first-round pairings appear well-balanced based on betting markets. Just two opening-round contests feature lower seeds as favorites — both 8-9 matchups where Utah State is favored by 2.5 points against Villanova, and Iowa holds the same advantage over Clemson.
“We’re expecting a fairly chalky tournament this year, similar to what we saw last season,” said Patrick Berbert, college basketball trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “The NIL era has really widened the gap between the top programs and the rest of the field. From a betting standpoint, we’re projecting record engagement again.”
