Major international financial institutions have upgraded their projections for China’s currency, citing the nation’s robust export performance and stabilized trade relationships with the United States.
China’s yuan has steadily climbed throughout this year, gaining almost 3% against the dollar to reach 6.8040 per dollar on Monday, while also rising approximately 2.6% compared to its primary trading partner currencies.
Several prominent banks have adjusted their forecasts:
HSBC has increased its year-end projection to 6.65 per dollar, up from its previous estimate of 6.75, based on expectations of continued modest currency strengthening.
Beyond China’s highly competitive export sector, “RMB internationalisation, long-term diversification from USD and economic rebalancing are key domestic structural themes supporting the RMB. Externally, U.S.-China economic relations have become stable and more constructive since May 2025,” HSBC analysts noted in their research.
Deutsche Bank anticipates that this year’s robust Chinese import activity will drive additional yuan appreciation.
“A surge in China’s imports of upstream products will likely be followed by a further pickup in export orders, or a recovery of domestic demand, or both,” Deutsche Bank economists Yi Xiong and Deyun Ou wrote in their analysis.
Deutsche Bank has revised its primary forecast, now expecting the currency to reach 6.55 per dollar by the end of 2026, compared to their earlier prediction of 6.7.
Goldman Sachs similarly anticipates continued and “longer-lasting” yuan appreciation, driven by China’s exceptional external surplus and competitive export capabilities.
Even with challenges from the Iran conflict and elevated energy prices, Goldman stated the medium-term perspective remains favorable, supported by anticipated worldwide investment in energy security and renewable technologies that would boost China’s export sector.
The American bank now projects the yuan will reach 6.80, 6.70 and 6.50 per dollar over three, six and twelve-month periods, revised from their previous estimates of 6.85, 6.80 and 6.70.
