BEIRUT (AP) — More than a month after the United States and Israel began military operations against Iran on February 28, the Trump administration maintains it has nearly “obliterated” the Islamic Republic’s armed forces. Last week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that “never in recorded history has a nation’s military been so quickly and so effectively neutralized.”
However, following weeks of intense American-Israeli air campaigns, Iran’s weakened military continues to pose a persistent threat. The country’s ongoing attacks on Israel and neighboring Gulf states are creating regional instability and generating significant economic and political consequences.
Iranian missiles keep breaching Israeli air defenses and causing civilian casualties. Low-cost unmanned aircraft evade neighboring countries’ defensive systems, damaging the Gulf Arab states’ reputation for security while injuring American service members. Tehran’s warnings to target petroleum vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are restricting shipping traffic and driving up fuel costs worldwide.
President Donald Trump has pursued diplomatic talks while issuing severe threats, aiming to secure Iran’s enriched uranium supplies and force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to analysts, Iran’s strategy involves enduring the current fighting long enough to pressure Washington into seeking a resolution.
“Their strategy is to try to cause sustained pain and to drive up the costs of the war for the U.S.,” said Kelly Grieco, an expert in U.S. military strategy and operations who is a senior fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank.
From the opening day of the American-Israeli air offensive, leaders from both nations have consistently highlighted a significant reduction in Iran’s ballistic missile launches as evidence their campaign to eliminate launch sites and weapon supplies was succeeding.
Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine reported to journalists on March 4 that Iran’s “ballistic missile shots fired are down 86% from the first day of fighting and their one-way attack drone shots are down 73%.” During a media briefing two weeks afterward, Hegseth announced that Iran’s ballistic missile attack frequency had decreased “90% since the start of the conflict.”
This Tuesday, Hegseth informed Pentagon reporters that Iran had launched its “lowest number” of missiles and drones in the previous day, although neither he nor Caine provided updated statistics. Trump posted on Truth Social Tuesday that “Iran has been, essentially, decimated.”
Independent tracking by Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), an American organization monitoring global conflicts, supports assertions of reduced Iranian attacks.
March 1, the conflict’s second day, saw Iran execute nearly 100 strikes. The following day, attacks fell to 53 and remained at similar levels for several days. ACLED information indicates Iran hasn’t exceeded 50 strikes daily since March 6, spanning three and a half weeks. Under ACLED’s system, a “strike” may encompass multiple individual attacks at the same location on one day.
Iran has averaged 30 daily strikes over the past three weeks, occasionally increasing its attack frequency.
“That makes me question whether it’s a capacity issue or a strategy issue,” Grieco said of the initial decline in Iran’s strike rate. Iran may be conserving its missiles and drones rather than experiencing ammunition shortages.
ACLED findings reveal approximately 40% of Iran’s regional attacks are penetrating air defenses, indicating stress on American and Israeli interceptor supplies. Iran has deployed fewer missiles while increasing difficult-to-intercept low-altitude drones.
“We are vaporizing billions of dollars in long-range anti-missile defenses, which are scarce national resources,” said Tom Karako, the director of the Missile Defense Project at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Karako warned that America and Israel risk depleting interceptors before eliminating Iran’s remaining missile stockpiles and mobile launchers — a goal proving “maddeningly difficult.”
More than a month into the conflict, Trump administration representatives continue referencing the initial 72 hours when discussing Iran’s diminished capabilities.
“A good percentage of Iranian missiles, at least half of the arsenal, is stored in very hardened facilities that are not easily reachable with air power,” said Farzin Nadimi, an expert on the Iranian missile program at The Washington Institute. “It looks like the Americans and the Israelis have been underestimating some level of complexity.”
Despite Hegseth’s description of Iranians as “flailing recklessly” through attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure throughout the Arabian Peninsula, analysts believe Tehran has carefully calibrated its timing and target selection for maximum impact.
“They have been able to strike targets more efficiently and therefore use fewer missiles to achieve the same result,” Nadimi said.
Iran has increasingly focused its attacks on critical infrastructure including oil pipelines and water treatment facilities across the Persian Gulf, attempting to force American concessions. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have suffered the heaviest damage. Last week, Iranian ballistic missiles and drones targeted a Saudi military base, injuring over two dozen American troops and damaging aircraft.
“In this asymmetrical war, the most important thing for Iran is attack the world economy in hopes of coercing the U.S. to stop,” said Assaf Orion, a retired Israeli brigadier general and senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies. This economic warfare has become more significant to Iran than targeting Israel, which considers this conflict existential and won’t be deterred, he explained.
Iran’s ability to maintain current retaliation levels remains uncertain, given limited American and Israeli intelligence regarding Iran’s missile and drone inventories.
Military analysts from both countries provide different estimates of remaining weapons but agree Iran likely retains thousands of inexpensive, domestically-produced drones capable of threatening American allies, even if much of its medium-range ballistic missile capacity has been eliminated.
“Iran built itself to be able to ride a war like this out,” said Karako. “It has been preparing for this.”
