WASHINGTON — What was expected to be straightforward passage of a roughly $70 billion immigration enforcement funding measure for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s administration has hit unexpected snags for Republicans.
The legislation has encountered delays due to disputes over White House ballroom security funding included in the package and the establishment of a $1.8 billion fund for government mistreatment claims. This setback has not only postponed action on a key GOP priority but is also casting doubt on other elements of the party’s legislative plans, including the possibility of passing another comprehensive party-line measure known in Washington as “Reconciliation 3.0.”
In recent weeks, Republicans have been building the foundation for such legislation, viewing it as a crucial final appeal to voters ahead of the midterm elections.
Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, both from Louisiana, have been conducting meetings with committee and caucus leaders to evaluate proposals that have solid support from party members. They aim to build on last summer’s major tax and spending reduction bill with legislation that would boost Pentagon funding by hundreds of billions while implementing cuts in other areas to offset costs, which they describe as addressing government waste and fraud.
This represents a significant political risk during an election year. A successful outcome would strengthen the GOP’s narrative of delivering on legislative commitments. A failure would highlight Republican divisions under Trump that might prompt voters to consider alternatives.
Johnson successfully guided the House GOP’s narrow majority through Trump’s tax and spending cuts legislation last summer with a 218-214 vote. Republicans could only afford to lose three votes from their own party at that time, and they lost just two.
While facing another tight margin for error, Johnson expressed greater confidence about success this time.
“It will be just as beautiful, but not as big, so it’ll have less provisions and less things to get everybody to yes on,” he stated.
Rep. Jodey Arrington, who chairs the House Budget Committee, indicated Republicans maintain the same level of motivation they had for last year’s tax cuts measure.
“This one, I think you’ll have potentially money to support our troops in conflict,” said the Texas representative. “I can’t imagine a Republican not wanting to support our troops and military community in a time of conflict.”
The Trump administration has requested that Republicans allocate $350 billion for defense through a reconciliation bill.
However, Rep. Brendan Boyle, the ranking Democrat on the House Budget Committee, believes Republicans will face greater challenges than they encountered with Trump’s major tax and spending cuts legislation.
“I think it will be for a couple of reasons. First is the president’s approval rating. He was at a much higher level a year ago than he is right now,” said the Pennsylvania representative. “Number 2, we are much closer to the November midterm elections. So, if you’re one of a dozen or a couple dozen House Republicans who are really vulnerable in a swing district, you have to think even more carefully about voting for something that has even more health care cuts in it.”
Last summer’s tax cuts bill decreased Medicaid spending by over $900 billion across ten years and reduced nutrition assistance spending by approximately $187 billion over the same period, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune described a third reconciliation bill to bypass the filibuster as a “potential option,” offering lukewarm support at best.
“We haven’t made any commitments on that, but we’re hearing people out,” said the South Dakota senator.
Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina emphasized that lawmakers should understand the bill’s contents before beginning the legislative process to prevent it from falling apart.
“If it just becomes another exercise where you’re not really sure what’s going to be the end product, then I think it’s a mistake even to pursue it,” Tillis stated. “We ought to be smart about it if we do a third one, but it is kind of a moonshot.”
Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska expressed skepticism about the approach.
“A third reconciliation may or may not happen. I’m just being direct,” she said.
The House is scheduled to remain in session for approximately 24 additional days before the August recess begins. This provides limited time to pass a budget framework in both chambers, which serves as the initial requirement for pursuing party-line tax and spending legislation. Committees would also need to complete their work on advancing their sections of the bill.
Another obstacle could be Trump’s treatment of current senators whose support he needs for any package to become law. Trump backed challengers against two senators who faced difficult primary contests and ultimately lost — Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas.
Cassidy has already demonstrated increased willingness to oppose the president. Following his primary defeat, he voted last week to advance legislation seeking to force Trump to withdraw from hostilities with Iran.
Lawmakers indicated they could modify and revive some proposals that the Senate parliamentarian rejected for inclusion in last year’s reconciliation bill. For instance, Republicans attempted to prevent states from extending Medicaid coverage to immigrants in the U.S. illegally.
Rep. August Pfluger of Texas, who chairs the Republican Study Committee, said the bill should be built on three foundations: making the country more affordable and secure while reducing fraud.
The group’s recommendations include eliminating capital gains taxes on home sales to first-time buyers to stimulate the market, and implementing a 5% tax on funds sent by noncitizens to their home countries.
Arrington said he would also like to strengthen requirements for the earned income tax credit, a program that increases financial benefits for working but has a high rate of improper payments. He also advocated for preventing immigrants in the U.S. illegally from residing in housing units financed by housing tax credits provided to developers who build and renovate affordable rental housing.
“There’s a lot more work to be done to build on what we did in the first one with Medicaid and SNAP (nutrition assistance), with respect to fraud,” Arrington said.
