A Paris appeals court is scheduled to deliver a landmark ruling Tuesday that will determine the political fate of French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and whether she will be allowed to compete in next year’s presidential election.
Le Pen’s path to the presidency has been uncertain since March 2025, when a court handed down a five-year ban on holding public office after finding her guilty of diverting more than €4 million (approximately $4.6 million) from the European Parliament. She has maintained her innocence and challenged the ruling through an appeal.
Should the appeals court uphold the ban, the 57-year-old would be blocked from making her fourth attempt at the French presidency. In that scenario, her 30-year-old protege Jordan Bardella would step in as the presidential candidate for her anti-immigrant National Rally party, known by its French initials RN — a party that currently leads in polling.
Le Pen has devoted more than a decade to reshaping the movement her father Jean-Marie founded, transforming it from a fringe nationalist group into what many observers now consider a serious contender for governing power. Being forced out of the race would represent a deeply personal setback.
Despite her potential absence, surveys indicate that Bardella — even with limited political experience — would likely advance through the first round of voting and reach a two-candidate runoff.
The court’s decision is expected at 1:30 p.m. local time (11:30 a.m. GMT). Le Pen is then scheduled to appear in a prime-time interview on TF1 at 8 p.m., where she may address her political future.
The National Rally, currently the largest party in the French parliament, has been preparing for the possibility of operating without Le Pen at the top. Many of the party’s lawmakers built their political careers under her leadership and would need to adjust to Bardella’s direction. Party officials have indicated that Le Pen would actively campaign alongside Bardella if he becomes the nominee, and that the party’s leadership would stay unified.
However, Bardella’s policy positions differ from Le Pen’s in notable ways — particularly his more pro-free-market stance and proposals on pension reform that could alienate older voters, a key part of the RN’s support base.
The specifics of the court’s ruling will be decisive. Le Pen was originally convicted of orchestrating a scheme in which European Union funds meant to pay parliamentary staff were instead used to compensate RN employees. Her original sentence included a five-year ban from seeking elected office — effective immediately — along with a €100,000 fine and a four-year prison term, with two years suspended and two to be served under home detention with electronic monitoring.
The appeals court has several options. It could maintain the conviction but reduce the punishment. If the office ban is eliminated or cut to two years or less, Le Pen would likely be eligible to run, given that the ban began in March 2025. If the prison component is kept in place, running an active presidential campaign while confined to home monitoring would present serious practical and political challenges.
Judges could also throw out the conviction entirely, clearing Le Pen to run without restriction — though legal analysts view that outcome as unlikely given the lower court’s findings.
If the original conviction and sentence are both upheld, Le Pen could bring her case before France’s highest court, the Cour de Cassation. However, she has stated that she will not pursue the presidency if doing so means waiting even longer for a final legal decision.
