TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida Democrats who anticipated making electoral gains this cycle now face the prospect of surrendering as many as four congressional seats following new district boundaries approved by the state’s Republican-dominated legislature.
The redistricting plan could flip up to four House seats from Democratic to Republican control, despite Democrats’ hopes of capitalizing on shifting political winds in the state.
Governor Ron DeSantis defended the redistricting effort, stating it accurately represents Florida’s demographic changes and political preferences. Democratic leaders denounced the move as a calculated power play supported by former President Trump, who has encouraged similar redistricting efforts nationwide.
The new boundaries employ classic gerrymandering strategies known as “packing and cracking.” These techniques either concentrate similar voters into fewer districts to limit their broader influence, or spread them across multiple districts to weaken their electoral impact in any single race.
Analysis from political experts across party lines shows 24 districts where Trump secured double-digit victories in 2020 under the revised map. Republican victories in all these districts would represent a four-seat pickup for the party.
Legal challenges to the new map appear inevitable, but here’s how the boundary changes impact current Democratic strongholds across Florida.
The Tampa Bay region, encompassing Pinellas and Hillsborough counties, previously served as a crucial swing area in national elections. Voters around Tampa and St. Petersburg historically functioned as political barometers for presidential races.
The existing configuration divides the metro area between Republican Anna Paulina Luna’s conservative-leaning district and Democrat Kathy Castor’s liberal-leaning seat. The revised map creates three districts with Republican advantages, while adding more conservative rural territory to Castor’s constituency.
Castor condemned the new boundaries as “blatantly illegal” due to Florida’s constitutional prohibition against partisan gerrymandering. However, she pledged: “No matter how new districts are drawn, I will keep fighting for Tampa Bay families.”
Luna, a priority Democratic target this November, gained additional Republican-friendly precincts, though Washington Democrats maintain the seat remains winnable given Trump’s declining approval ratings.
Currently, Democrats Darren Soto and Maxwell Frost hold adjacent Orlando-area districts, with Frost representing the urban core while Soto covers Kissimmee and extends across much of Osceola County.
The new map consolidates Orlando’s metropolitan center into one overwhelmingly Democratic district. Simultaneously, other Orlando neighborhoods join a more expansive, Republican-leaning district stretching across greater distances.
Frost criticized the design for connecting urban residents with voters living two hours away. “That’s how hard DeSantis map-makers had to work to dilute the impact of voters in Orange County and make this district red,” he posted on social media.
Soto, who is Puerto Rican and currently represents a significant Puerto Rican population, directed sharp criticism at the governor.
“DeSantis declared war against Florida’s 1.3M Puerto Ricans,” he wrote online. “We are American citizens, our people served and died for this country, and we vote.”
The redistricting plan eliminates a predominantly Black South Florida district previously held by Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick before her recent resignation amid a House ethics investigation regarding campaign fund usage. This district was originally created to satisfy Voting Rights Act requirements that the Supreme Court significantly weakened this week.
DeSantis characterized the district as an extreme example of racial gerrymandering, noting its inland core with two extensions reaching toward coastal Democratic communities.
Under the new plan, this district essentially disappears, with its territory distributed among several other districts.
Representatives Lois Frankel and Jared Moskowitz currently hold neighboring districts spanning portions of Palm Beach and Broward counties, both with slight Democratic advantages.
The revised map establishes a more solidly Democratic district centered on West Palm Beach, combining some of Frankel’s constituents with those previously represented by Cherfilus-McCormick. Moskowitz faces greater challenges, as his current territory gets divided among three districts.
Parkland, Moskowitz’s hometown, will join a more Republican district extending across the state to Naples. Already a top Republican target before redistricting, Moskowitz has not announced which district he will choose for his reelection campaign.
Representatives Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, former Democratic National Committee chair, and Frederica Wilson currently serve adjacent districts south of the Frankel-Moskowitz area.
Wasserman-Schultz represents north Broward, including her home in Weston, plus Hollywood, Pembroke Pines, and part of Miramar. Wilson, residing in Miami Gardens, holds the second-most Democratic district on the current map, covering south Broward and sections of Miami-Dade.
The new configuration creates just one concentrated Democratic district in Miami-Dade, positioning Wilson to retain her seat there. A heavily Democratic Broward district sits between that Miami-Dade constituency and Frankel’s Palm Beach County base. Wasserman-Schultz doesn’t live in that Broward section, forcing her to choose between running there or competing in one of the more Republican districts Moskowitz is also considering.
Wasserman-Schultz labeled the redistricting “a nakedly partisan scheme” that “breaks state law.”
In potentially positive news for national Democrats, the South Florida changes didn’t significantly strengthen Republican Representatives María Elvira Salazar of Coral Gables or Carlos Giménez, another Miami-Dade legislator. Democrats plan to continue targeting both seats in this year’s midterm elections.
