A wave of major U.S. hotel chains and online travel companies are gearing up to report their second-quarter financial results beginning next week, and Wall Street is trying to balance excitement over a FIFA World Cup boost against worries tied to ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
Hotel companies appear well-positioned to capitalize on strong travel demand and elevated room and airfare prices fueled by the World Cup. Online travel platforms, on the other hand, are expected to take a more cautious tone when offering future guidance.
Analysts at BofA Global Research put it bluntly: “Hotels are the real World Cup winner.”
Still, analysts noted that hotel operators will need to raise their full-year projections to keep the sector’s momentum going.
Online Booking Platforms Face a Tougher Road
Concerns are growing that artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT and Gemini could eventually take over the travel booking process — a worry that has already started to drag on the stock performance of online travel companies.
Jeff Barrington, managing director at Windsor Drake, explained the threat directly: “Expedia’s core function — search and compare and aggregate — is exactly what an AI agent replaces.”
Brokerage firm BTIG is anticipating weaker-than-expected forecasts from online travel companies, pointing to Middle East instability as a key factor. Cancellations in the region peaked during March and April, and these companies have a history of being cautious with their outlooks.
“That risk hits Booking the hardest,” BTIG said, noting that the company’s full-year guidance had assumed the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran would be over by June 30.
Airbnb, however, is seen as a standout exception among online platforms. Bernstein analyst Richard Clarke said, “We expect Airbnb to have been the biggest beneficiary in the online travel sector given its focus on leveraging the event (World Cup) to add supply.”
Hotels Cash In — But Questions Remain
Robust domestic travel demand and premium pricing — particularly in World Cup host markets — are expected to deliver strong second-quarter results for hotel chains, helping to offset softer revenue from the Middle East region. Analysts at Jefferies noted that luxury and upper-upscale properties had a particularly strong quarter, and that ongoing geopolitical tensions have not yet significantly affected either leisure or business travel.
But not everyone is convinced the World Cup windfall signals a lasting trend. Bookit CEO Lin Dai told Reuters that any earnings bump tied to the tournament should be seen in perspective: “a three-week event, not a trend line.”
Dai added, “U.S. hotels charged more for the World Cup without actually filling more rooms… Revenue climbed because rooms got expensive, while the number of people actually traveling barely moved. And the spike is already gone.”
Hilton Worldwide is scheduled to report its results on July 28, with Marriott International following on August 3. Booking Holdings will report August 4, Expedia Group on August 5, and Airbnb on August 6.
Baird analyst Michael Bellisario summed up what investors will really be focused on: “The focus is the underlying growth trend going forward, excluding World Cup.”
