Despite strong verbal backing from Beijing and Moscow, Middle East experts believe Iran should not expect military assistance from China or Russia in its ongoing conflict with Israel and the United States.
Both nations have expressed solidarity with Tehran since hostilities began Saturday, with China condemning the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and issuing multiple statements of friendship. Russia’s Foreign Ministry has declared that halting American and Israeli aggression represents the only path to regional stability.
However, academic specialists suggest this support remains purely rhetorical.
Hebrew University’s Dr. Simon Wolfgang Fuchs characterized the response by saying, “I think we could describe what Russia and China offered as sort of their ‘thoughts and prayers.’ Russia offered its condolences. China was maybe a bit more forceful in condemning the killing of Khamenei.”
Bar-Ilan University’s Prof. Yoram Evron from the Department of Asian Studies believes China is evaluating battlefield conditions and refuses to “tying itself to a sinking ship” or a “collapsing regime.” He noted that “This is not part of China’s DNA.”
Evron emphasized that while China and Iran maintain a longstanding partnership, they lack true alliance bonds. Consequently, China appears unwilling to sacrifice its interests supporting a government acting “illogically” and “engaged in self-destruction.”
Historical precedent supports this assessment. During the summer’s 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel-US forces, Beijing maintained distance, offering general opposition to military action against Iran but little else. Even potential UN Security Council resolutions would face American vetoes, Evron observed.
“In principle, China has not gotten involved in military conflicts in the Middle East,” Evron stated. “It hasn’t done so so far, and it is probably not going to start doing it right now. Also, China, despite its support of the Iranian regime, has so far avoided any direct conflict with the US over Iran. Any time that the US was determined to block Iran, China didn’t put its interests in danger to help Iran.”
Beijing is also monitoring the conflict for intelligence purposes, studying military technologies and considering developments for its own forces while avoiding exposure of its capabilities through direct involvement.
Diplomatic factors further complicate matters. President Donald Trump’s scheduled March 31 visit to China, announced by the White House, makes Beijing reluctant to jeopardize the trip as both nations work to extend their fragile trade agreement.
China also stayed quiet during earlier Iranian protests this year, likely downplaying domestic coverage to prevent encouraging similar unrest at home, Fuchs noted.
Evron predicted Beijing would likely establish diplomatic ties with whatever government eventually replaces Iran’s current leadership.
“No regime can live without China as an oil customer,” Evron stated.
While China imports approximately 12% of its oil from Iran, according to Fuchs, this represents roughly 87% of Iran’s crude exports, creating an asymmetric dependency favoring China.
Despite international sanctions, China has continued Iranian oil purchases, providing crucial regime support. Beijing may have also offered diplomatic backing and possibly supplied dual-use technologies, materials, and potentially military products smuggled into Iran, Evron noted.
However, he cautioned against accepting all reports at face value.
“I assume that many of the news reports about Chinese assistance were largely Iranian leakage, which I’m not sure were very accurate,” he explained. “Iran might have used China to give the impression that it is not totally isolated, but I don’t know to what extent China actually provided it with any military-related materials.”
Energy markets also influence the Russia-Iran relationship. Moscow could potentially benefit from current hostilities if Iranian export disruptions drive buyers toward Russian oil.
The US Treasury issued a 30-day waiver Thursday permitting India to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea “to enable oil to keep flowing into the global market,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced via social media.
Russia has gained from Iranian military technology, particularly drones extensively used in the Ukraine war, explained Bar-Ilan University political science lecturer Dr. Ze’ev Khanin. He told The Media Line that this relationship lacks complete reciprocity, as Iran has not received promised advanced fighter aircraft or air defense systems from Russia.
“Russia and Iran officially declared themselves as strategic partners about a year ago and signed an accord around diplomatic, economic, humanitarian, and security affairs,” Khanin said.
Under this cooperation framework, Russia has provided Iran with some air defense systems, military aircraft, and tanks, while receiving unmanned vehicles and drones for Ukraine operations. Nevertheless, Khanin emphasized partnership limitations.
“This doesn’t mean either country will fight for the other,” he stated.
Recent events validate this assessment. When Israel-US-Iran tensions escalated earlier this year, Russia avoided military intervention and likely will continue this approach, Khanin said.
“They might exchange some sort of intelligence information, but not more than that,” Khanin explained.
The conflict extends beyond the three primary actors, involving multiple regional players, particularly Gulf states where Russia maintains significant strategic and economic interests. Moscow has worked to preserve relationships across the region, including with Gulf nations and Israel.
These interests mandate Russian caution. If Gulf states increase cooperation with Western powers during the conflict, Russia risks losing regional influence.
Russia also depends on Iran for sanctions circumvention. According to Khanin, Iran has developed extensive networks of companies and intermediaries in Dubai, Turkey, and Southeast Asia over decades. These networks help Iran bypass international sanctions while enabling Russia to acquire goods unavailable through official channels.
“If Iran at the moment loses this network, that will be a very bad piece of news also for Russia,” Khanin said.
While China and Russia may maintain political solidarity with Iran, experts conclude they are unlikely to provide battlefield support.
