California’s Democratic stronghold faces an unusual challenge as party leaders worry about a potential lockout from the gubernatorial general election this November.
The Golden State, which serves as a Democratic political powerhouse and home to Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Gavin Newsom, could see Republicans dominate the race to replace the term-limited Newsom due to California’s distinctive voting rules.
The state’s primary system advances the two highest vote-getters to the November election, regardless of their party membership. Current polling indicates that GOP contenders Steve Hilton, a former Fox News personality and British government advisor, and Chad Bianco, who serves as Riverside County Sheriff, are running neck-and-neck with three Democratic hopefuls: Congressman Eric Swalwell, ex-Congresswoman Katie Porter, and wealthy activist Tom Steyer.
These five leading candidates, joined by Democratic San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, participated in Tuesday’s debate starting at 5 p.m. Pacific Time, providing a crucial opportunity to distinguish themselves before the June 2 primary. The stakes are particularly high for Democrats hoping to prevent an embarrassing result in a state that last supported a Republican presidential candidate in 1988, though GOP Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger did lead the state from 2003 to 2011.
With over two months remaining before primary voting begins and polling showing roughly 25% of voters remain undecided, candidates still have time to gain momentum. However, Democratic concerns are mounting about potentially missing the November ballot during midterm elections that will decide whether President Trump’s Republican Party maintains its narrow Congressional control.
State Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks issued a public appeal this month asking long-shot candidates to withdraw from the contest, acknowledging that while unlikely, the possibility of two Republicans competing for governor remains “not impossible.”
“There is a chance,” noted Steven Maviglio, a veteran California Democratic political consultant. “Nobody’s been able to break through.”
The eventual winner will govern a state boasting approximately $4 trillion in economic output, ranking fourth globally if California were an independent nation. The state frequently serves as a testing ground for progressive policies covering environmental protection, labor rights, and minority protections that other blue states later adopt and Republicans use to criticize Democrats in competitive districts.
“Given that no candidate has yet broken out of the field, a debate like this one may have more import than would normally be the case two months out,” explained Dan Schnur, a University of California-Berkeley professor and former GOP strategist.
Among the Democratic contenders, Swalwell has gained national recognition through cable television appearances, a brief 2020 presidential campaign, and his role managing Trump’s second impeachment proceedings in 2021.
Steyer, another 2020 presidential hopeful, transitioned from hedge fund management to Democratic activism and has invested tens of millions of his personal wealth into this campaign.
Porter, who departed Congress following an unsuccessful 2024 Senate bid, earned acclaim for her aggressive questioning of corporate leaders during congressional hearings. Mahan represents the moderate wing and has frequently criticized Newsom’s governance.
Several other Democrats failed to meet Tuesday’s debate requirements, including former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state education chief Tony Thurmond, and former state controller Betty Yee.
Both leading Republican candidates, Hilton and Bianco, align themselves with Trump while emphasizing California-specific concerns like crime rates and tax burdens.
Bianco recently made headlines by announcing the seizure of over 500,000 ballots in his jurisdiction as part of an investigation into alleged fraud during a 2025 special election regarding a Democratic-supported congressional redistricting plan, echoing Trump’s unsubstantiated claims about election irregularities.
Democratic Secretary of State Shirley Weber, the state’s chief elections officer, dismissed these allegations as lacking “credible evidence and risk undermining public confidence in our elections.”
